Sleeping With My Sox On

Moving Day

2009-07-22T22:05:00.001+01:00

I've decided to try blogging on WordPress since Blogger is more than a little difficult to use. You can find the new version of my blog here: http://sleepingwithmysoxon.wordpress.com/

Sox trade for Adam LaRoche

2009-07-22T20:46:00.002+01:00

Quite what LaRoche adds over Mark Kotsay is debatable although the Sox don’t appear to have given up a whole lot to acquire the Pirates 1B. LaRoche can hit the ball a long way and is known to go on long second half surges but he’s nothing more than a lefthander off the bench, which is admittedly a need since the Sox appear not to be able to hit right-handed pitching at the moment.

Adam Kilgore breaks down the deal pretty conclusively here, whilst over at my favourite non-Red Sox blog Bucs Dugout, Charlie doesn’t appear to like the Pirates haul although one would argue that Adam LaRoche, having a poor season and soon to be a free agent, wasn’t exactly going to draw a great return from any team.

(Pause for a moment whilst Brandon Moss (remember him) hits a walk off shot for the Pirates against Milwaukee.)

Well timed there Brandon since I was about to mention that this is second time the Sox have traded for a Pittsburgh starter midseason in the last two years, with Jason Bay coming over this time last season. The Pirates look to have come off pretty badly in that trade although it’s still early days since only Andy LaRoche (Adam’s brother) has shown anything like competent regular performance in the Majors since the trade – Craig Hansen has bombed and Moss has been injured and/or ineffective.

As a part time Pirates fan (don’t ask) I hope their fortunes improve since I’m well behind their rebuilding programme which for the first time in years seems to be moving with some actual purpose behind it. I’m not too sure this trade gains them anything more than a utility infielder but better that than paying Adam LaRoche to hit some meaningless homers and then depart over the winter for nothing.

There goes the 20 win season

2009-07-21T23:43:00.001+01:00

Timmy Wake is on the DL with a back strain; Clay Buchholz is back up sooner than expected, unless you’re of the John Smoltz wrist-slasher club like me – I mean seriously, how bad has he been so far?

Anyway I digress, the Sox go again shortly with Josh Beckett on the mound.

I find the below image paints a picture of what I expect from the Commander in Chief.

Halladay craps awesomeness

2009-07-19T23:46:00.002+01:00

Just how good is Roy Halladay?

As ridiculous as this sounds, I’ve always seen the Toronto ace as being underrated and only now, as he looks set to be traded by the idiotic Jays FO, he is starting to get the credit as one of the better pitchers of his generation.

Halladay thoroughly outpitched Jon Lester today and that’s not easy to do. Lester pitched well himself but you can’t allow three runs against Halladay and expect to come away with the win, it just doesn’t happen.

Johan Santana is rightly considered the best pitcher on Earth but Halladay is up there; he is a consummate horse who continues the get the job done. Perhaps he isn’t as flashy as Santana, Verlander et al but considering the pisspoor excuse for the team he plays on, he shouldn’t have won nearly as many games as he has, which is a nod of the standard of excellence he has put forth for the better part of the last decade.

I have said that the Sox shouldn’t entertain the idea of trading for Halladay, given what it would cost in relation to the question marks over the future rotation (would you trade Clay Buchholz right now?) but I certainly would like to see him in a Boston uniform, as much as every other fan, coach, manager, GM and player would like to see him wearing their uniform.

Where Halladay will end up is in some question given the no-trade clause and aforementioned cost; my bet is St. Louis should JP Riccardi really decide it’s a good idea to trade away his best player (look how well the Santana trade has turned out for the Twins) but there is no team that would not be better for having him in their rotation.

So the Sox ending up losing the series in Toronto but that’s not the end of the world; the Jays can pitch and the Sox line-up isn’t so hot right now. It’s off to Texas tomorrow where hopefully John Smoltz can show something, anything against the annually powerful Rangers line-up; he’ll face Kevin Millwood, who despite a solid ERA just isn’t very good.

World peace achieved (Buchholz wins)

2009-07-18T20:24:00.001+01:00

5.2 innings
4 hits
1 run
3 walks
3 strikeouts

Pretty good no?

Clay Buchholz returned to the Majors and was the victor for the first team in like twenty years or something as he contained the Blue Jays to the tune of a single run as the Sox battered ROTY candidate Ricky Romero.

It was satisfying to see Buchholz deliver a strong Major League performance, especially on the night Julio Lugo got designated at last.

Yeah, we won't be seeing any of this again: -

Buchholz set to pitch in

2009-07-17T13:25:00.003+01:00

The unofficial second half starts tonight and if that weren’t enough excitement for you, Clay Buchholz makes his season debut after dominating Triple A to the tune of a 7-2 record, 2.36 ERA and 8.09 K/9. Buchholz will face the Blue Jays and then be immediately sent back to the minors; hopefully after showing the FO that its time he returned to the Bigs for good.

We all know Buchholz has the talent to make it in the Majors but his 2008 season was a disaster that leaves some doubt about his application at this level. Hopefully his return to the minor leagues has given him the chance to correct his flaws and although the results suggest he has, it’ll be interesting to see what happens when the young righty faces real Major League hitters tonight.

Looking to the future, it’s important that Buchholz begins to establish a Major League presence since there are question marks over the rotation going forward past this season, when John Smoltz and Brad Penny are free agents, Tim Wakefield is pushing 43 and the long term status of Diasuke Matsuzaka is in question. Much has been made of the Sox’s minor league depth, especially on the mound, and the time is coming when it will be tested.

Of course that’s not a complaint, that’s how the organisation has always intended it to be and so far its worked; Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester and Justin Masterson are all established players at the top level now and with these successes in mind there is a certain confidence in the idea of Buchholz and Michael Bowden joining them in the near future.

Hopefully that future becomes the present tonight.

Sunday Thoughts: No I haven’t been in prison...

2009-07-12T11:58:00.010+01:00

After my abrupt reappearance yesterday, I actually received a couple of emails (you mean people actually read this site?) wondering whether I’d been incarcerated, which fortunately I haven’t.

Made me laugh though.

So anyway, the All Star break is almost upon, a time to take stock and see just where the hell we are, moving towards the all important stretch run, and the trade deadline that precedes it. The Sox are in first place, by two games after last night, but like every other team they have some question marks and that bare keeping a closer eye on; after all the MFY are never too far away...

What’s wrong with the bullpen?

Over the last two weeks, the Sox pen has coughed up a 6.21 ERA, allowing 26 earned runs over 37.2 innings, highlighted by last night’s disaster, in which Justin Masterson was battered for 5 runs in 0.1 of an inning and neither Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima couldn’t get it done, leaving Daniel Bard to sort out the damage.

Bard is filthy hot right now which has helped immensely since Masterson seems to have imploded over the past couple of weeks. For the month of July, though only eleven days old, Masterson has pitched four innings and allowed seven earned runs, ballooning his ERA up to 4.98. Youth may play a part but his form is concerning since the Sox rely on him, right or wrongly, to clean up a lot of messy situations, although admittedly this was not one of them.

The signs are there that Masterson and Ramon Ramirez are getting overworked and the results bear that out; the bullpen is this teams great strength and it needs to be nurtured ready for (hopefully) an extended postseason run. I think its high time Takashi Saito was put into a few more high pressure situations, it’s not like he’s a little kid, and it’s time to test him out when it matters.

Should the Sox be trading for a hitter?

In a word, no.

Mike Lowell may be on the DL but he is on his way back and frankly, the line-up is doing well enough for the FO to stay their hand for the time being; I’m intrigued by what Aaron Bates can bring to the plate (first hit last night) since the young first baseman has shown the ability to get on base and hit for good average in the minors, and also because I have a fetish for prospects making it at the big club. Sure he’s struck out in over half his at bats but let’s see what the kid can do before rushing into a stupid trade for Garret Atkins, who is having a terrible year, or Victor Martinez, who would cost half the farm; there’s also the fact that Jed Lowrie will be back with us in the near future as well.

Fortunately Theo has never really be inclined to move a number of top prospects for any player and he isn’t likely to know; we all like the idea of blockbuster trades but the Sox simply need don’t need one which leads me neatly onto the next question...

Should the Sox trade for Roy Halladay?

Don’t even think about it.

As Tony Maz has pointed out, the Sox could ring up the Jays FO today and make the deal; they have the combination of money, prospects and status as one of the games foremost winning clubs that would get a trade done in ten minutes flat.

The question has never been whether the Sox have the goods to make a deal; it’s whether they want to. Remember, it has been suggested that Theo was against the Josh Beckett trade that was made in his semi-absence and I find it pretty unlikely he would deal in a number of top prospects given that Halladay is older, costlier and nearer to free agency than Beckett was in 2006.

Think of the cost in talent that it would take to acquire Halladay; something along the lines of Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Bard and Lars Anderson would probably get it done.

Think that’s likely?

If you say yes than you simply haven’t been paying attention; the Sox wouldn’t give up that package for Johan Santana so they ain’t going to do it for a division rival, although with the way the Jays are being mismanaged it wouldn’t matter a whole lot if we gave them Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester; JP Riccardi would still find a way of fucking it up.

And finally...

Should the Sox release Julio Lugo?

The moment Jed Lowrie is activated.

Back in action

2009-07-11T13:17:00.001+01:00

First of all, apologies for my extended absence; suffice to say I had no choice.

Since last I posted, David Ortiz has refuted mine, and everybody else’s, suggestion that he was finished, hitting ten home runs during that period and whilst he may never again be the hitter he was between 2004-2007, he is proving quite aptly that there’s a whole lotta life in the old dog just yet.

So with the Large Father back in action and Sox atop the division, all is well yes? Well in a fashion; the rotation, aside from the DiceMan, has sorted itself out with Beckett and Lester back to their foremost dominating form and with Wake and Penny doing their upmost to match them the starting pitching is looking pretty damn fine if you ask me, so long as John Smoltz gets it going at any rate.

The concerns about Jonathan Papelbon seem unfounded to me since while the Bot is walking more guys this year and hasn’t been as dominating as in past seasons, it’s pretty harsh to say he’s having a bad season; it’s just that he’s been so good in every other season.

Having said that I’d hang off giving him a long term extension, though I would anyway since multiyear deals for relievers are a pretty stupid idea; you just can’t tell how they’re going to perform two or three seasons from now, look at BJ Ryan and Justin Speier for evidence of that, neither were worth the mega deals they got and whilst Pap might well be, it’s just not worth finding out, especially since we’ve got the likes of Daniel Bard who could be just as good in a couple of seasons time.

Anyway that’s it for now, I’m easing myself back into my normal routine and that involves watching Jon Lester’s performance from last night; to think I was worried about him at the start of the year!

Papi rides the pine

2009-05-16T10:04:00.001+01:00

The Red Sox lost to the Mariners last night after a poor start by Jon Lester but that isn’t really the main story as the game was important as it saw the benching of the man formerly known as Big Papi. David Ortiz is hitting .208/.318/.300 with zero home runs through the season’s first thirty-four games.

The Sox have some issues in the rotation and in the line-up which have largely been ignored since the team was still managing to win behind the play of Jason Bay and the bullpen, which has been as good as advertised but you can’t ignore serious failings forever and as much as it pains me to say it, Papi looks done.

In watching Ortiz hit this season, he’s been late on virtually every pitch and has looked awful in trying to turn on any pitch inside, previously a staple of his success at the plate. We can but hope that this is not the end but he fits the profile for players who don’t age well and we could be seeing the end of an era for Red Sox baseball.

Sure it’s too early to write the man’s obituary but his performance slipped last year through his wrist injuries and has dropped off the cliff this season; all the signs point to the final stages of a great career which saw some incredible feats achieved, both personally and for the team in the form of two championships. Such an end would be horrifically saddening to see for a fan who came to love baseball about the time Big Papi made his first marks on Red Sox lore in 2003.

Still, there’s plenty of games to go and if anyone deserves some leeway, surely it’s Big Papi?

Thoughts on Daniel Bard day

2009-05-14T11:38:00.000+01:00

Daniel Bard made his Major League debut last night, pitching two scoreless innings as the Red Sox got canned by Anaheim 8-4 on the west coast last night. The fireballing rightly allowed a hit and a walk whilst punching out Mike Napoli on three straight heaters. All in all a pretty impressive debut and one that will no doubt stoke the fires of expectation going ahead; Bard obviously has the stuff to be a dominant big league reliever but I wouldn’t expect Tito to throw him to the wolves anytime soon, having learnt that lesson with Cla Meredith and Craig Hansen in past seasons.

On an unrelated matter, should Jacoby Ellsbury be hitting leadoff with a .327 on-base percentage? Sure the .295 batting average and 16 stolen bases have value atop the order but they are completely negated by Ellsbury’s apparent inability to draw walks and get on base more. Over time this skill could develop but consider that Ellsbury is now 25 years old and has a BB% of just 4.8% so far this season, with the league average sitting at 9.7% - Coco Crisp is currently walking a staggering 15.8% of the time which is somewhat fluky but impressive nonetheless.

The point is that for all Ellsbury’s flashy and exciting skills he is currently a fundamentally unsound leadoff hitter in modern baseball, where the majority of people appear to recognize that getting on base is more important than virtually any other hitting attribute, save home runs. If Ellsbury cannot improve this problem then another solution, such as dropping him in the order, needs to be considered.

There was some talk in the offseason that JD Drew might handle leadoff duties, that’s Drew of the .245/.364/.490 line so far this season in 30 games. Drew’s average may be down and he may not have convinced Red Sox Nation of his worth in his two plus years with the club but the guy knows how to take a pitch and is a weapon that could be exploited at the head of the order; perhaps its time to revisit that possibility.

Showing signs of life

2009-05-12T10:39:00.000+01:00

Has it really been two weeks since last I posted? Goddamn work getting in the way! Anyway, to say the last couple of weeks have been interesting is an understatement. The Sox actually achieved a series win against the Tampa Bay Rays, taking two of three against the current AL Pennant holders, and there is Manny Ramirez’s suspension but I want to talk about the promotion of fireballing reliever Daniel Bard, called up to take the place of Javier Lopez, who has been unceremoniously shitcanned after an awful start to the season.

Bard has yet to make his debut but I can’t see the wait lasting too long; his 2009 season has gotten off to one hell of a start and he should be well placed to avoid the disaster that was the Cla Meredith experience of 2007 since Bard has established that he is a class above Triple A opposition, an achievement that Meredith has not completed since he was rushed to the Majors in a manner not previously (or since) seen by the FO.

The numbers simply bare out Bard’s dominance; he has a 1.13 ERA in 16 innings this season, punching out a staggering 29 hitters in the process. His fastball alone will get guys out and so long as he can successfully use his secondary pitches, such as his slider, then he should be able to keep the opposition guessing enough to make the fastball a continual out-getter. As with many young pitchers, walks could be an issue and Bard will have to demonstrate better control than he has if he is too avoid becoming another Craig Hansen but the talent is obviously their and with the Sox reeling from the loss of an effective Lopez and uncertainly surrounding Takashi Saito, who performance thus far has been average at best, they suddenly need another viable bullpen arm, especially since Justin Masterson is still in the rotation and figures to be for a few weeks yet.

The bullpen is clearly the Sox’s key strength and needs to be all-powerful if we are to live longest in the AL East; allowing Lopez to pull the group down was not an acceptable option and so his DFA was not a surprise and probably overdue. The rest, Saito aside, appear to be in good form although there have to be question marks over how many base runners Jonathan Papelbon is having to strand each time he takes the mound; he will not get away with it forever.

Anyway, it’ll be exciting to see the Daniel Bard era begin in the next day or so, hopefully he’ll become our Joel Zumaya, which will be pretty cool to watch.

Today being 27/04/2009

2009-04-27T08:26:00.001+01:00

Where to begin? Well perhaps with the annoyance of spending a morning writing about the value of having Nick Green and Chris Carter on the roster, only to see the former commit three errors that very same day and the latter get demoted to Pawtucket in favour of the more defensively sound Jonathan Van Every. Admittedly, Green is also hitting .302 on the season and launched a Manny-esque home run against the Twins during the same doubleheader as his miscues at shortstop, whilst Carter should be back when Rocco Baldelli (15-day DL) and JD Drew (day to day) return to full health.

Since last we spoke, the Sox have continued their winning ways, stretching their current run to ten games (!) including this weekends awesome sweep of the Yankees, who looked a soft touch in the face of the rejuvenated Red Sox line-up. Whilst David Ortiz still hasn’t hit any home runs, it hasn’t really mattered since Jacoby Ellsbury is stealing home these days, even with a lefthander at the plate, which is pretty incredible, even by Ellsbury’s swift standards.

To put it bluntly, the Sox battered the Yankees new era mystique over the course of the weekend, exposing their awful bullpen and lighting up their so-called stopper, tagging AJ Burnett for eight runs Saturday night. Admittedly, Josh Beckett faired no better but when the game comes down to the bullpen, the Sox are going to win, even with Justin Masterson, who threw 5.1 innings of excellent ball last night, in the rotation.

Masterson is looking in top form but is only a temporary measure since Diasuke Matsuzaka, still on the disabled list, is on his way back having spent the week throwing from flat ground in a bid to build up his strength ready for a return to action. The Japanese hurler, a likely victim of the Japanese managements disregard for his wellbeing at the WBC, will move to the mound this week in order to continue his progression. The Sox are built in such a way that caution can be exercised and we should be seeing Masterson in the rotation for at least a few weeks yet, which is no bad thing given his impressive run of results.

That patience is also being extended to the rehabbing ace in the hole John Smoltz, who is still working out in Fort Myers and faced hitters for the first time this past Saturday, a big step certainly but still near the beginning of the road back to the Major Leagues, as Tito has been quick to point out, "He wants to be in midseason form right now," Francona said. "When he's not, I think he starts champing at the bit and then we have to remind him that -- like when he thinks he's running in place -- he's not. His volume has expanded. He's doing a lot more now then he was before.

Since Masterson is looking good and Brad Penny has been a solid option as fifth starter, there really is no rush and the Sox are doing everything they can to ensure that when the time comes for Dice-K and Smoltz to return to the bigs, there are in prime condition to dominate like we all know they can. The sudden, and likely brief, appearance of Michael Bowden for two perfect innings last night just shows how much talent the Sox have and it would be criminal if they could not manage that.

That talent extends back down to the minors where my eyes continue to follow Junuchi Tazawa, curretly holding fort in Portland, where he had his first poor start since arriving in America this past Saturday, allowing six runs in 5.1 innings. That aside, he’s pitched solidly enough in his first taste of professional baseball, allowing ten earned runs in 21.1 innings with 19 strikeouts. Not exactly dominant but then that wasn’t expected to be the case; Tazawa will likely spend the year at Double A and definitely shouldn’t be seen in the Majors barring several injuries or multiple losses of form since there are simply too many good pitches ahead of him on the depth chart, which should prove helpful in the long run since the Sox are not forced to even slightly rush the talented Japanese righthander.

Also in the Majors waiting for the call is Daniel Bard, he of the 15.19 K/9 in Pawtucket; the day Bard gets promoted is the day I look at our bullpen and think the apocolypse is nigh, or some such other over the top statement since combined with Delcarman, Ramirez, Saito, Papelbon…you get the idea. Justin Masterson should be back in the bullpen by then as well, as well as possibly John Smoltz…you really do get the idea!

Well I think that covers just about everything, the Sox face the reigning AL Cy Young winner tonight; Cliff Lee hasn’t performed quite to 2008 standards this year, not that he was ever going to and with the Indians again showing indifferent form, I fancy the Sox to continue their impressive streak.

The Replacements

2009-04-22T12:40:00.000+01:00

This spring, Fort Myers actually saw some roster battles take place, something that doesn’t happen often on a team so loaded with money and talent. Due to the injuries to Mark Kotsay and Julio Lugo, the Red Sox actually entered spring with legitimate aspirations of finding out who should make the final opening day roster. Such a thing is pretty commonplace on most teams, including the Pittsburgh Pirates, the perennial losers who constitute my second team if you will, who see such battles regularly given that they don’t have, aside from the core group, players talented or proven enough to warrant an automatic roster spot.

I sometimes think that writing about the Red Sox is actually more difficult than writing about teams like the Pirates since the Red Sox are very good and that’s really the end of it; its somewhat problematic coming up with things to write about on this blog as a result, something that has occurred to me since the season started. I mean, aside from the struggles of David Ortiz and the recent injuries to Rocco Baldelli, Jed Lowrie and to an extent Diasuke Matsuzaka, what is there really to write about other than simple game recaps, which I feel can be found pretty much everywhere since besides the Yankees the Sox are the most covered team in the league.

With that in mind its time to start looking deeper and finding stuff worth looking into on a level beyond that of a game recap you could find on the Boston Globe web site or pretty much any other sports web site on the planet that covers baseball. Going back to the Pirates comparison and the spring roster battles, the recent spate of injuries shows just how important the results in the Fort Myers dogfight turned out to be since Nick Green is now the starting shortstop and both Chris Carter and the newly promoted Jeff Bailey both project to see significant playing time over the next few weeks before some of the most established names, such as Julio Lugo, make their return.

Green, who actually hit a walk off home run against the Sox for the Atlanta Braves in 2004, has looked pretty sound on the field and hasn’t embarrassed himself at the plate. A career .240 hitter, Green is hitting as such right now but the most important impact he can have is on defence, especially at such a key position. Primary a second baseman, Green has played 1446 innings at second and 172 innings at shortstop, where he’ll be spending at least the new few weeks before reverting back into the super utility role he was originally brought in for.

At short, Green has a .957 fielding percentage and a 43.8 UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating) which next to Julio Lugo (4.3) and Jed Lowrie (19.8) looks pretty great but the small sample size of Green’s time at shortstop doesn’t make for the most convincing argument; his 0.4 rating in 1446 innings at second base is probably more of an indication of what to expect, meaning that Green is 0.4 runs above the average second baseman so hair splitting aside he is an average second baseman. With that in mind it becomes relatively apparent that Green is a league average defender even if I haven’t gone into much detail, UZR is significantly more helpful than the traditional fielding statistics and in this instance may show that Green represents a helpful member of the team simply by being average; he is not, over the course of a whole season, going to be an All Star but at the same time he isn’t likely to hurt you much and when you want a fill in whilst your established starters are on the disabled list, you can’t really ask for much else.

So what I’ve hopefully got across there in my usual conclusive fashion is that Nick Green can help this team by simply being average across the board, a handy trait to have when you’re a depth player. As such he is worth keeping around, at least until Jed Lowrie comes back midseason. Its just as well he impressed during camp since I imagine the Boston press would be shitting themselves if he hadn’t done so well, even if most of that good performance was with the bat which I consider an irrelevance in this situation; Green is here to man shortstop in the absence of the injured players, anything he does with his bat is simply a bonus.

It also helps if he knows what he’s there to do, which seems to be the case.

On the other end of the scale is Chris Carter, considered an improving but still pretty awful defender, who is on the roster for his bat. In Pawtucket last year, Carter hit .300/.356/.515 with 24 home runs, performance that would indicate a plausible Major League player. This past spring he put up a .355/.380/.658 in 76 AB with a team high 6 home runs, enabling him to beat out Jeff Bailey for the final roster spot going into the season. Carter is different from Green as he has the makings of a regular in the big leagues; his bat is seen to have the potential to make him a legitimate starting option assuming the team in question can find a position for him.

Ok so in 6 PA so far this season he’s not yet managed to get on base but that’s hardly a sample size worth bothering about. What matters is his minor league record and how it projects to move up to the next level. To my mind, the indicators of that are power, the ability to make contact on a consistent basis and the patience to stay off pitches outside of the strike zone (however you don’t need all three; the Royals’ Mike Jacobs is proof of that lurid transgression).

In terms of power, Carter obviously qualifies; as well as the 24 in 2008, he also 19 in both 2006 and 2007. Not elite power perhaps but when coupled with the ability to post high averages, and more importantly high on-base percentages, you get, well you get Kevin Youkilis I suppose, before last years breakout so still a very good hitter. Overall at Triple A, Carter hit .308/.383/.518 over the course of 2673 PA, which to me says he can be a presence in the Major Leagues. I would have liked to expand on the patience and strike zone coverage side of things but I don’t have access to his minor league numbers for these qualities but suffice to say he can take some walks and doesn’t strike out at a horrific level, whilst posting high averages in the process.

That makes Carter valuable to someone, even if long term it isn’t the Red Sox; I would hazard a guess that given a starting role he could post a line of .275/.340/.450 one day which even though he is defensively challenged would still be useful production so long as he continues to come cheap. Basically I’m implying that Carter is another useful player to keep on the roster, although finding playing time for him has thus far been a problem given that the three positions you could conceivably stick him are taken and unlikely to be relinquished (DH, 1B and LF).

So what I’ve done there is spent an hour or so looking into two players who earned their way onto the roster and who have some value, especially in the face of the recent injury problems. It might be said that we already knew that but hey, it passes the time doesn’t it? In all seriousness though we’ve found two or three useful players this winter for virtually no cost that can provide about the same as backup players that have previously cost the team millions of dollars (Alex Cora etc.) which is unnecessary if the powers that be are prepared to take a chance on the inexperienced types that have shown the required talent to fill a role, something I would think more teams would be open to doing considering there’s a recession on. Of course when Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie and Mark Kotsay are back the point will probably be moot anyway but until then, I’m going to watch our worthy spring training victors in action.

So much news, so little time

2009-04-21T16:20:00.000+01:00

Jed Lowrie is likely out until at least the All Star break after reportedly being close to choosing surgery on his injured left wrist. Lowrie hurt himself during spring training and then hid it from team officials although there’s no knowing if this contributed to the injury. Given that the scale of recovery seemed to be between a few weeks and the whole season, losing the teams best shortstop for half the year is a blow, but it could have been a lot worse.

Fortunately the Sox do have other options; Nick Green is handling himself pretty well after making the team during camp and Julio Lugo, who I would otherwise have confined to the bench or removed entirely, should be back with the big club in a couple of weeks after his own hamstring problems. Lugo isn’t the answer but he will suffice in the absence of Lowrie, whom I still have extremely high hopes for long term.

Rocco Baldelli has also been placed on the disabled list with hamstring injury of his own and as Mark Kotsay is still on the DL himself, Jeff Bailey has been called up from Pawtucket to assist in the outfield. Couple that with Dice-K’s absence and you’ve got a team that’s pretty thankful for its depth right about now.

Elsewhere, Brad Wilkerson has chosen to retire after failing to make the big club and struggling in the minors.

Meanwhile, Justin Masterson and his Red Sox smashed the Orioles to complete a four game sweep.

Gm12: Baltimore 1, Boston 2

2009-04-20T09:10:00.001+01:00

Be calm; Jon Lester pitched seven shutout innings, punching out nine Orioles in the process as the Sox won their forth straight to bring their record up to .500 and into the realm of expected performance. Ramon Ramirez continued his scoreless streak in the eighth whilst Takashi Saito, who we were previously told wouldn’t pitch on back to back days, got through the ninth, giving up a run in the process and stranding the tying run at second base.

David Ortiz had another awful days at the plate, going 0-4 with strikeouts to lower his average on the season to .170 whilst on the plus side Jacoby Ellsbury got himself another couple of hits. All in all the Sox did just enough behind a dominant Lester, which is suppose is how it should be.

I’m a little surprised at the appearance of Saito, who we could well do without overusing; could not Tito have used Manny Delcarman and Ramirez to get it done? Does Manny not have the faith of his manager in tight situations?

Who knows but Francona very rarely uses his pitchers too much, especially when he’s said he won’t, making this occurrence especially odd and worth watching out for. Saito hasn’t gotten himself locked in yet and rushing him through multiple appearances isn’t going to help. The bullpen is deep Tito; use it.

Gm11: Baltimore 4, Boston 6

2009-04-19T12:18:00.000+01:00

Youk hammered out four hits including a three run blast to break the game open, just in time really as Josh Beckett stumbled in the fifth before getting a relatively straightforward sixth. The difference maker this season is the bullpen and when the Sox have the lead going into the late innings, you have to fancy them to win and this was no different; Okajima, Saito and Papelbon closed the door again, combining for a 3-2-0-0-4 line.

Big Papi got himself a couple of hits but still only has one extra base effort on the season, whilst Ellsbury and Pedroia, slowly improving in the last couple of games, went 2-9 as the early season struggles went on.

Three straight wins for the Sox now and Jon Lester up next followed by Justin Masterson tomorrow in place of the ‘fatigued’ Dice-K. Lester has not been great so far and a good showing this evening would do much to calm my worries that the big lefty is suffering from last seasons exertions.

The bullpen rides high

2009-04-18T12:33:00.000+01:00

Gm10: Baltimore 8, Boston 10

Put in a hole by Brad Penny’s god awful start and with their bats looking capable of turning it around, the Sox turned to their depth-laden bullpen, and aside for Javier Lopez, they delivered, again. The guys pulled out a five inning shutout, allowing five hits and a walk with four strikeouts as the bats broke out and did what they do best...mash.

Top amongst the performers were Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez, neither of whom has allowed a run so far and Hideki Okajima, so-so in the first few games this year, got a big two outs after Ramirez had allowed two one-out singles to start the eighth. Papelbon finished the job obviously.

As for the bats, they go boom!

As it stands Kevin Youkilis, JD Drew and Jason Bay are leading the offense but Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury both showed signs yesterday that the fog is lifting. Drew got on base five times in all and is doing his best to relieve the doubts over his back whilst Bay is off to a tremendous start in his all-important contract year.

As for Penny, well its one game and there’s plenty to go; Baltimore’s offense is in good form so all is not lost.

It’s very easy to look at it from that point of view when the big ‘W’ is next to your team’s name.

OT: Victory

2009-04-17T09:52:00.002+01:00

Need I say more?

Gm10: Baltimore @ Boston, 7ET

2009-04-17T09:49:00.001+01:00

BAL: J. Guthrie (2-0, 2.25)
BOS: B. Penny (1-0, 4.50)

With Dice-K down Brad Penny's contribution has suddenly become a lot more important.

OT: Let's go Bruins!

2009-04-16T22:08:00.002+01:00

Speaks for itself really.

Lest we forget last year.

It's time to go one better.

Lowrie on the mend

2009-04-16T21:46:00.000+01:00

Incumbent shortstop Jed Lowrie, who made the mistake of hiding his spring wrist injury from the powers that be, has been told he should be back on the field within three to four weeks after consulting hand specialist Dr. Thomas Graham in Baltimore today.

Lowrie, who has bombed so far this season, is believed to have suffered his injury towards the end of spring training but kept it from team officials in order to grab his chance to start with Julio Lugo already out with a hamstring problem; you can’t fault his desire to earn his spot but it’s backfired big time and instead presented a chance to Nick Green, a chance the 30 year old has taken with aplomb, making a couple of spectacular players in yesterdays win over Oakland.

If I were Lowrie I wouldn’t worry too much about the starting gig, Lugo hasn’t shown anything like enough during his time in Boston to warrant being the starter and you just know that the top brass are still trying to get him out; Lowrie will be the starter in the not too distant future, be at shortstop or even third base, giving Mike Lowell’s age and injury problems. Patience is the key for the 24 year old; making silly decisions like this simply isn’t necessary.

Gm9: Boston 8, Oakland 2

2009-04-15T21:11:00.004+01:00

Ok so I actually got to watch this one and for the first time this season I can say it was actually fun viewing; great pitching from both starters made for a speedy, entertaining match up which saw a possible no-hitter go up in smoke and an awakening from the Sox's living dead offense.

JD Drew opened the game up once nemesis Brett Anderson had departed, firing a three run shot that made sure of victory, even as Tim Wakefield faltered in the late innings and Jacoby Ellsbury and Nick Green got themselves big hits to seemingly reinvigorate the struggling team.

It’s an off day today so time for a little reflection and realisation that the season is just nine games in and panic is not really a realistic option right now; something the Boston media types would do to remember (then again panic seems to sell in Boston).

Plus:

Tim Wakefield – The bullpen needed a rest and Wake is the kind of guy who can either provide it or blow up in your face. Fortunately it was the former on this occasion, as the 42 year-old took a no hitter into eighth. It’s hard to put into words how massive this outing was for Timmy and he delivered.
George Kottaras – Looks pretty sound behind the plate and none too shabby with a bat in his hands either.
Nick Green – Now the starter since both Lugo and Lowrie are down, Green got himself an RBI and made two spectacular plays from shortstop to deny Oakland a route back into the game when it was still close.
The O – Finally the bats (some of them) got it done; Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis continued to get hits whilst Mike Lowell and Drew homered to take the game away from the A’s.

Minus:

The Front Three – Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz went a combined 2-15 and Papi in particular popped out with the bases loaded in the seventh, which we got away with by hammering the A’s during the next inning. On the positive side Ellsbury picked up a big two run hit and Pedroia seems to be the type to start slow, having done so the past two seasons. Big Papi meanwhile seems to be late on any pitch above 90MPH. Not good.

A satisfying win in the end and just a little sign that the Red Sox attack may be coming out of its funk. Good pitching sets the tone however and we haven’t seen nearly enough of that. The talk is that Justin Masterson will replace Diasuke Matsuzaka in the rotation and judging by his performance in relief so far, that can only be a good thing.

The Sox’s touted depth will be tested now that Lowrie is out for what could be a while and Dice-K is on the shelf indefinitely. Nick Green looks good in the field but it’ll be interesting to see how he handles things at the plate; fortunately (?!) Julio Lugo should be back soon if Green falters.
As for Masterson, well the kid can pitch and whilst it takes some of the depth away from the bullpen, we always knew something like this was going to go down, that’s why the bullpen was so stacked in the first place.

Back to the Fens on Friday, hopefully this breather will be enough to get things going.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So to recap: -

Dice-K is on the DL with a fatigued arm.

Jed Lowrie is possibly going under the knife.

Jon Smoltz is set to take his rehab to the next level.

Tim Wakefield has allowed one baserunner through seven and that was on an error.

Drew's 3 run shot has made it 5-0 Sox.

We could actually win!

UPDATE: Sox win 8-2. More tomorrow as I am going to bed.

Gm8: Boston 5, Oakland 6

2009-04-14T21:33:00.004+01:00

A gut wrenching defeat but check out the bullpen line of 10.2-5-0-3-12 which bailed out "fatigued" starter Diasuke Matsuzaka. Since tonight's game has already started I'll focus on that instead of this disaster.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: D. Matsuzaka (0-1, 6.75)
OAK: D. Eveland (0-0, 4.50)

Apologies for the lack of depth to this weeks game posts, I can't watch games that start at 3am our time. Doesn't sound like I'm missing much at the minute anyway.

Your having a giraffe (laugh)!

2009-04-14T21:29:00.001+01:00

Josh Beckett suspended six games.

You have got to be shitting me?

Raise your hands if you think Mike Scioscia should be shot.

Gm7: Boston 2, Oakland 8

2009-04-14T06:42:00.002+01:00

Man are we sucking it up right now.

Pluses:

Your kidding right? Well Kevin Youkilis homered and doubled, keeping his average at .519 on the season.

Minuses:

Jon Lester - Please don't let this be a breakdown because of last seasons workload.
The rest of the team other than Youk - speaks for itself, the bats have departed for pastures new it seems. After all its not like we've faced great pitching in the last couple of games.

The Sox badly need something to lift them out of this, for the lack of a better word, slump; unfortunately Dice-K isn't usually the kind of guy to rely on in this situation. Here's hoping for performance that even nears the ability, from all of the team.

Gm6: Boston 4, Los Angeles 5

2009-04-12T17:11:00.003+01:00

Well that didn't go to plan.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BOS: J. Beckett (1-0, 1.29)
LAA: D. Moseley (0-0, 4.50)

Win damn it!

Gm5: Boston 5, Los Angeles 4

2009-04-11T20:50:00.003+01:00

It was close and nerve shredding but the Sox got back to winning ways; the Angels loaded the bases against Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth but he got out of it and preserved Brad Penny’s first victory in a Red Sox uniform. Mike Lowell’s long ball in the seventh got the Sox going after LA has gotten off to a quick start and Jason Bay homered twice to put Boston in front for good before Papelbon’s shaky outing.

Plusses:

Ramon Ramirez – 4.1 innings into his Red Sox career and the return in the Coco Crisp trade is looking mightily strong. Its early days yet of course but having not given up any runs or walks in his appearances so far, Ram-Ram could well be the go-to guy this year, especially since Hideki Okajima hasn’t looked good thus far.
Jason Bay – Two home runs will be a plus in any game and his second in the ninth turned out to be more important than it should have been.
Brad Penny – Not a lights out performance but good enough and for a fifth starter that is all that matters; Penny gave up a couple of long balls to Mike Napoli but otherwise handled the Angels pretty well for saying he isn’t up to full speed yet.

Minuses:

Jed Lowrie – a .056 average isn’t going to cut it for long and with Julio Lugo’s return just around the corner, Lowrie could already be seeing the end of his career as the Red Sox starting shortstop.
The top of order – The Sox top four in the order went a combined 1-12 with a walk; not good enough and mildly annoying if not panic inducing this early in the year.

The rubber game sees Josh Beckett face Dustin Moseley; we gots to be winning this one.

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BOS: B. Penny (0-0, 0.00)
LAA: J. Saunders (1-0, 0.00)

Red Sox line-up:
Ellsbury, CF
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Youkilis, 1B
Baldelli, RF
Bay, LF
Lowell, 3B
Lowrie, SS
Varitek, C

The Sox may be hitting .238 through the seasons first four games but Kevin Youkilis is hitting .625 during the same period.

Gm4: Boston 3, Los Angeles 6

2009-04-11T18:22:00.001+01:00

Box.

Ugh.

I didn't witness this game; 3am is a bit too much even for me but it didn't sound good.

Tazawa impresses, loses in Portland debut

2009-04-10T08:00:00.000+01:00

Now I didn’t see any of the game and am going purely by the box score, but Red Sox prospect Junichi Tazawa pitched five innings for Portland on his professional debut as the Seadogs lost 3-0 to Connecticut last night.

Tazawa allowed four hits and one earned run, striking out seven whilst combining with catcher Mark Wagner to halt two erstwhile basestealers in their tracks. Tazawa did allow two doubles and a triple but staved off most of the damage in what is surely an encouraging sign for the promising young Japanese talent.

It’s a bit difficult to say any more than that without report from the Boston media, who are all asleep across the ocean but the stats don’t tend to lie all that much so I’m impressed with Tazawa’s debut, I don’t imagine it will long before he’s on the mound in Boston.

Gm3: Tampa Bay 4, Boston 3

2009-04-09T15:20:00.002+01:00

The story of this one really centres around the three home runs allowed by Diasuke Matsuzaka, who put in a typically erratic performance, walking three whilst throwing a wild pitch and hitting Matt Joyce, who homered for the Rays to finish off their series win. Dice-K made it through just 5.1 innings in his season debut allowing four runs off nine hits and never really looked in command on the mound, leaving the bullpen to pick up the pieces and Sox facing a disturbing home series defeat.

Jason Bay did finally get the Sox on the board against the brilliant Matt Garza with a triple in the sixth to bring home Kevin Youkilis who despite going into the ninth 3-3 with a walk, flew out to end the game with David Ortiz on first against Troy Percival, who had made Rays fan sweat by allowing Jason Varitek’s long ball.

All in all pretty dissatisfying but unlike some of the apocalyptic Boston media types I’m not going to lose heart after three games in which there were definitely plusses and minuses; speaking of which, I’ve decided to commit some more thievery by taking a leaf from the book of the Globe’s Fluto Shinzawa; instead of simply detailing out what happened in these games (you can get that from the AP) I’m going to suggest my plusses and minuses from the games, much like Fluto does for the Bruins. After all this is supposed to be an opinion blog, not an official recount of what happened.

Plusses:

Kevin Youkilis – yes Youk did end the game with his heartbreaking flyout but he is also hitting .667/.692/.833 to begin the season. A small sample size I know but still a damn hot start.
The bullpen – especially Ramon Ramirez and Justin Masterson, who looked sharp in relief of shaky Dice-BB. The bullpen has been hyped a lot over the winter and rightly so although Hideki Okajima had a second straight sloppy outing.
Mike Lowell – He looks a lot healthier than I was expecting, especially in making a sharp play in the eighth to snare Shawn Riggans’ liner; much depends on Lowell’s health this season.

Minuses:

Diasuke Matsuzaka – awful. I have come to terms with the fact that he will likely never go deep into games and will always nibble at the plate but that’s fine so long as he gets guys out and stays away from the long ball, neither of which he managed last night.
The offense – the Sox are hitting .238/.325/.416 through the first three games; basically Jason Varitek’s 2008 line.

Obviously three games in it would be unfair to look for patterns but we’re going to face a lot of good pitching this year and we need to match it; neither Jon Lester or Matsuzaka could do that the first time around; they will need to in the future.

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TAM: M. Garza (0-0, 0.00)
BOS: D. Matsuzaka (0-0, 0.00)

Line-ups here.

Gm2: Tampa Bay 7, Boston 2

2009-04-08T15:48:00.004+01:00

Jon Lester struggled on his 2009 debut, tagged for five runs in as many innings including a four run fifth highlighted by Carlos Pena's two-run shot to deep centre. Takashi Saito and Javier Lopez also gave up runs late on although there were scoreless outings from Manny Delcarman and Ramon Ramirez on what was a pretty sloppy night for the Sox.

Boston threatened to get back into the game in the eighth but Jed Lowrie stuck out with the bases loaded to end the threat. All in all not a night to remember but when your two games in its difficult to complain too much, unless your the 0-2 Yankees and neither of your starters has recorded a strikeout.

Dice-K tonight.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAM: S. Kazmir (0-0, 0.00)

BOS: J. Lester (0-0, 0.00)

Expected Line-ups:
Second game already? Rocco Baldelli is down to make his debut since the Sox lefties have bombed against Kazmir in the past; hopefully Rocco can do in his former teammate.

Gm1: Tampa Bay 3, Red Sox 5

2009-04-07T11:27:00.005+01:00

Josh Beckett pitched seven superb innings, fanning ten whilst yielding just one run and the Sox stamped all over ‘Big Game James’ to complete a satisfying opening to the 2009 season. Hideki Okajima was charged with two runs late on but aside from that blemish all went about as well as it could of.

Dustin Pedroia got the season off to a great start, hammering the second pitch he saw from Shields into the Monster seats whilst a three run third, immediately after a pair of walks had enabled the Rays to draw level, set the Sox up for a big opening win. Pedroia walked on four pitches and whilst Big Papi flew out to right, Kevin Youkilis singled followed by JD Drew’s hardhit liner, which although handled brilliantly by Carlos Pena, allowed Dustin to score. Jason Bay followed this up with a long single to score Youkilis before Mike Lowell brought the scoring to a close with a double to bring in Bay.

On the question mark front, Beckett (7-2-1-3-10, 93) was as good as he ever has been whilst Lowell had his double in the third and Jason Varitek clubbed a long ball in the sixth. Justin Masterson was forced into action after Okajima hit Bartlett and walked Iwamura, although the Japanese righty did strike out Carl Crawford on three pitches, and promptly gave up an uncontested double steal and two run single to Evan Longoria before seeing off Pena (four K’s) and Pat Burrell.

Jonathan Papelbon punched out two in the ninth for his first save.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAM: J. Shields (0-0, 0.00)
BOS: J. Beckett (0-0, 0.00)

Expected Line-ups:
Let's try again...Opening Day is here!

Rainout forces need for fifth starter

2009-04-06T20:53:00.004+01:00

Brad Penny will get the ball for his Red Sox debut this Saturday, as management has switched he and Josh Beckett around thanks to today's postponement. He'll face the Anaheim Angels but the Sox could then choose to skip his next start which would fall on the 16th which is a scheduled off day.

Not a great deal to get excited/worried about but its going to be very interesting to see Penny pitch this year; much may depend on his success/failure.

Meanwhile I'm watching my first live game of the year as the Reds battle away against the Mets; its 2-1 New York in the seventh and oh man it's good to watch some baseball again!

Position Projection: Outfield

2009-04-06T15:46:00.001+01:00

Left Field Likely Starter: Jason Bay
2008: .286/.373/.522, 31 HR, 101 RBI, 111 R

For saying the sky came crashing down in the eyes of some when Manny was traded, his replacement did pretty damn well if you ask me. Bay represents the ideal of a player in the eyes of management, much like Mike Lowell; a combination of talent, hard work and downright professionalism that has led to a new age in Red Sox baseball, the next evolutionary step from the “idiots” era of 2003-2005. Bay hit .293/.370/.527 in 49 games after arriving in Boston, banging nine home runs along the way whilst playing solid defence in the position victimised by Mr. Ramirez the previous seven years.

Whilst Bay is not Manny at the plate, he isn’t as far away as people seem to think and could well increase his totals this year as he becomes more familiar with his opponents and Fenway Park. Throw in the motivation of a contract year and it becomes possible to see a monster season from Bay, which the Sox could well do with in these post-MBM times.

Bay brings power and patience to a line-up that values these traits and is also pretty handy on the base paths, a factor which has become more important to the Sox over the last couple of years. Bay is one of those superbly reliable players that you can always count to perform at a high level, which is big plus for the Sox, who need as many of these guys as possible considering the question marks that still hang over Jacoby Ellsbury, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell etc.

A big season this year from the former Pirate could bode well for the Sox’s title chances as it would mean the line-up is as deep as in years gone by, when the Sox used to mash everyone in sight; this could be the best means of disposing off the Rays and Yankees, especially since their own formidable pitching should be able to keep our AL East opponents in relative check.

2009 Projection: .288/.375/.540, 37 HR, 121 RBI, 120 R

Centre Field Likely Starter: Jacoby Ellsbury
2008: .280/.336/.394, 9 HR, 47 RBI, 98 R

Common consensus is that Ellsbury struggled in 2008 which is true from a certain point of view; on the positive side however it should be argued that he played a superb centre field and saw his batting average steadily climb late in the season, which along with his skill on the base paths mean that all that is required is a spike in his OBP and he suddenly becomes a pretty formidable lead-off man atop the Red Sox order.

Will that happen? Only time will tell and the parallels between Ellsbury and the Twin’s Carlos Gomez are pretty striking; both could be forces at the top of a Major League line-up or they could become perennial number nine hitters, relied on mainly for their defence. Either way Ellsbury has value and for now we’ll assume (and hope) that he takes a significant step forward this year.

I was actually on the Drew for leadoff bandwagon but that idea has been blown out of the water, rightly or wrongly; I won’t question it too much since I’ve come to trust Tito’s judgement but Ellsbury will have to be watched carefully since the Sox cannot afford an easy out in front of Dustin Pedroia, nor will they tolerate one.

2009 Projection: .270/.345/.422, 11 HR, 63 RBI, 119 R

Right Field Likely Starter: JD Drew
2008: .280/.408/.519, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 79 R

Arguably the most talented player on the Red Sox roster, all JD Drew has provided in his two years with the club are moments, rare tantalising glimpses of the elite player that lies within. Patient almost to a fault and blessed with a picture perfect swing, Drew should have been one of the games best players but injuries and some would say disinterest have derailed that vision. I’m not one of those that believes Drew doesn’t care, he has a style and it’s made him a good player but I also long for a consistent healthy season, a rare combination that would likely produce MVP numbers were to happen.

Unfortunately it probably won’t but that doesn’t mean Drew won’t still make an impact, because he will so long as he’s on the field. An excellent defender and above average at the player, Drew has significant value to the Sox, as he showed last June when he carried the offence in the absence of David Ortiz. Drew has also had some pretty spectacular postseason moments, which have increased his worth to the team and whilst he is blatantly overpaid he is also a game winner who could get on a run and crush all in his path – don’t expect that to happen but expect a decent season, so long as his ever troublesome back holds up.

2009 Projection: .313/.416/.552, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 99 R

So that’s the projections for the starting team, aside from Big Papi in the DH slot, which I’ll get on too shortly. Suffice to say it’s been pretty straightforward to do since we know all of the players and have a pretty good read on what to expect from them. If it turns out like I’ve predicted we should be onto a winner, if not then we could be in the crapper.

Gm1: Tampa Bay @ Boston, 2ET (Postponed)

2009-04-06T14:29:00.006+01:00

Update: Game off because of the threat of heavy rain - Opening Day has been moved to tomorrow, 4ET.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TAM: J. Shields (0-0, 0.00)
BOS: J. Beckett (0-0, 0.00)

Expected Line-ups:
So here we are, opening day, at least so long as the rain holds off, which is probably won’t.

These two teams are two of the top three in Major League Baseball, the tricky thing is that the third of this abominable trio are the New York Yankees, and between them they form the most competitive division in baseball, meaning even the very first game of the season is of key importance.

As you can see above, both teams appear very well matched and it should be close given the talents on the mound. Josh Beckett is looking to recover from a shaky 2008, during which he battled various aches and pains throughout the season whilst James Shields established himself as an elite starter on the way to helping the Rays win their first ever division title.

Make no mistake, although the “Big Game James” nickname was ridiculous, Shields can beat this Red Sox team, meaning Beckett will have to be back to his best very quickly to ensure his boys get off to a good start. The threat of Pat Burrell, playing in the American League for the first time, mustn’t be underestimated and his presence gives the Rays an extra-edge, as if any were needed.

The Sox meanwhile will rely on the same faces that finished last season, hoping that better health will improve a team that won 95 games last year and was just a game away from the Fall Classic before David Price appeared to shut us down. Fortunately, Price will be starting the season at Triple A so the Rays can fiddle his arbitration clock but that makes their rotation no less formidable, as the Sox will face Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza in this opening series, making the possibility of high scoring affairs seem pretty remote.

The Sox will counter with Beckett, Jon Lester and Diasuke Matsuzaka, along with their new improved bullpen, which is where they could have the edge over their opponents this season. Tampa’s relief corps was outstanding in 2008 but I feel it may struggle this time around; Grant Balfour has had a horrendous spring and Troy Percival doesn’t convince as the closer, perhaps its just wishful thinking but the Sox have increased their depth to stratospheric levels and I don’t see how the Rays can match that – as always the Sox’s patient line-up could be the key to winning this division clinching games.

All we can do now is hope I’m right.

Game on!

Gm1: Atlanta @ Philadelphia, 8ET

2009-04-05T15:03:00.003+01:00

Atlanta 4-1 Philadelphia, Box

As is often the way, the defending champions got a slapping on opening day, reminding them that last year was well, last year. Brett Myers got knocked around for four runs off three home runs, including a career first for Jordan Schafer, who went 2-3 with a walk on his debut. Derek Lowe pitched eight shutout innings for the win and was backed up by closer Mike Gonzalez, who escaped a tricky ninth inning by striking out both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to seal a big win for revamped Atlanta.

Myers settled in after the second and ended up pitching six innings but the vaunted Phillies offense couldn't recover the damage against Lowe, who was dynamite on his debut, pitching exactly how the Braves will need him to pitch this year. Atlanta had just one starter qualify for the ERA title last year, showing just how problematic the rotation was for the Braves, who lost ninety games for the first time in two decades; meanwhile Lowe has averaged 208 innings over the last seven seasons, which bodes well for a bounceback year for Bobby Cox's men.

For them, hopefully this is just the start. For the Phillies, old man Moyer starts game two.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ATL: D. Lowe (0-0, 0.00)
PHI: B. Myers (0-0, 0.00)

Since this blog has yet to see a regular season game I have decided to preview tonight’s opener before the World Champion Phillies and their NL East opponents the Braves. As this is a Red Sox blog I won’t be doing this in the future for other games but think of this as a test for tomorrow.

The Phillies will roll out Brett Myers to start his third straight opener as ace Cole Hamels is still recovering from a minor elbow issue. Myers pitched well down the stretch in 2008 and is entering a contract year so expect a decent season from him. The Phillies will be virtually the same on the field as last year except for one notable exception in left field, where Raul Ibanez replaces Pat Burrell. New GM Ruben Amaro didn’t do a very good job on the Ibanez front, giving him a vastly inflated $31 million deal whilst his younger and superior predecessor got just $16 million from Tampa Bay.

Defence aside, Ibanez is still a good hitter and joins an impressive line-up which continues to feature Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, as good a trio as you will find in the Majors. Howard has also been signed to a lucrative extension which Amaro gets credit for, along with the decision to release useless spare parts Adam Eaton and Geoff Jenkins, signed by former GM Pat Gillick.

All in all the Phillies are average or above in virtually every area, which you would expect, and seem primed to challenge again this year. Their rotation and bullpen are good and they are one of the better defensive teams, left field aside. It’s hard not to see them making the playoffs again and they have a strong chance to repeat if things fall their way.

The Braves meanwhile have been significantly overhauled after missing the playoffs altogether a year ago. The Rafy Furcal debacle aside GM Frank Wren has done some good work in reworking his team’s rotation, which will be without Tim Hudson for most, if not all of the season after Tommy John surgery. New additions Derek Lowe, who will start the opener, Javy Vasquez and Kenshin Kawakami will join Jarr Jurrjens to form a formidable front four which can match anything the rest of the division can throw at them.

The problem comes with offense, where the Braves might well struggle; if Chipper Jones, who seems to keep getting better with age, can stay healthy, he could win the MVP but aside from Jones, Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann and Yunel Escobar, the Braves have a whole lot of question marks. Garret Anderson doesn’t look like he has much left in the tank and the simple fact remains that to date, Jeff Francoeur hasn’t been good enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. The Braves will need better seasons from Francoeur and Casey Kotchman in order to challenge for the division title and will also need a significant contribution from rookie Jordan Schafer in centre field, a big ask for the 22 year old.

This is a good opening matchup which features two of the four competitive teams in the NL East; there’s a pretty good chance a championship will come from this division again and it could well be from neither of these teams. Such is the depth offence of the Mets and the pitching on the Marlins, who are one of my dark horses to win this thing.

Without any basis for comparison its pretty pointless looking at the line-ups but look for that tomorrow when I preview the Red Sox’s opener against the Tampa Bay Rays. It’s almost time...

Last minute predictions

2009-04-05T13:51:00.000+01:00

The season starts tonight! And I haven’t post nearly as much as I wanted to over the last week so I’m going to try and cram in a load this morning. The outfield Position Projections will probably be tomorrow morning but here’s some predictions for the season, which you should consider virtual locks (or not).

I’ll begin with the player awards which go as follows: -

AL MVP: Mark Teixiera, NYY
NL MVP: Manny Ramirez, LAD

AL CY: Matt Garza, TAM
NL CY: Ricky Nolasco, FLA

AL ROTY: Matt Wieters, BAL
NL ROTY: Pablo Sandoval, SFO

No real surprises although I suppose you could question the young winners of my Cy Young awards. Matt Wieters, like Evan Longoria before him, seems destined to be crowned Rookie of the Year in the American League whilst Pablo Sandoval can obviously hit and should be solid enough in the field to deflect any questions there. The MVP’s speak for themselves.

Then for the teams, here’s where it gets a wee bit tricky...

AL East: Boston
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Los Angeles
AL Wildcard: Tampa Bay
AL Pennant: Boston

NL East: New York
NL Central: Chicago
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wildcard: Florida
NL Pennant: Chicago

World Series: Boston

Yeah I’m going with Sox, who wouldn’t? Yeah I’m dismissing the Yankees, because I can.

The roster be set, it’s almost time

2009-04-03T07:47:00.001+01:00

Brad Penny is in:
"Oh yeah, I think he's all set," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "Monday, who knows [about the weather]. Things change. Do we need a fifth starter before? We're going to stay a little bit flexible."

That aside, the confirmation is there that when the Sox need a fifth starter, Penny is the guy, as he has been all along. Clay Buchholz will began the season in Pawtucket, which is probably the right place for him and the big club can go forward knowing they have two Major League starters at Triple A and John Smoltz working his way back…talk about depth.

All in all its been a pretty uneventful camp, which is perfect; there’s been no Curt or Manny to create headlines, just Dustin Pedroia reminding us how awesome he is. Never mind six years, give this man a lifetime contract already!

The roster meanwhile, looks thus: -

Starting Line-up
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Dustin Pedroia, 2B
David Ortiz, DH
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
J.D. Drew, RF
Jason Bay, LF
Mike Lowell, 3B
Jed Lowrie, SS
Jason Varitek, C

Bench
Rocco Baldelli, OF
Nick Green, IF-OF
George Kottaras, C
Chris Carter, IF-OF

Rotation
Josh Beckett (R)
Jon Lester (L)
Diasuke Matsuzaka (R)
Tim Wakefield (R)
Brad Penny (R)

Bullpen
Javier Lopez (L)
Ramon Ramirez (R)
Manny Delcarman (R)
Justin Masterson (R)
Takashi Saito (R)
Hideki Okajima (L)
Jonathan Papelbon (R)

DL
Julio Lugo, “SS”
Mark Kotsay, IF-OF
John Smoltz (R)

That’s as deep a team the Sox have started a season with since I began to follow this sport in 2002 and the rotation matches up with that of 2004 when the trio of Schilling, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe looked nigh unstoppable. The bullpen, as broken down by Tony Mazz here, is as good if not better than any in baseball and considering Daniel Bard is still to come up sometime this year, it should be pretty interested deep into games where Tito can manage the matchups to his hearts content. As Mazz points out, this bullpen has big time strikeout power and can face lefties or righties in equal measure; that Manny Delcarman comes across as a spare luxery just goes to show what this unit could be capable of if handled correctly, which won’t be a problem for Tito and John Farrell, as good a management duo as there is.

So the countdown is almost up, about three weeks after I was ready for the start of the season, it is finally here. All that remains to is to congratulate Nick Green and Chris Carter for making the opening roster, something both deserved even if Mark Kotsay’s injury was a contributing factor. I’ve been hoping for Carter to get some big league time for a while now; the guy can hit and will prove it this year and although it sounds blasphemous, might we have a possible new DH on our hands?

Position Projection: Catcher

2009-04-02T11:19:00.002+01:00

Likely Starter: Jason Varitek
2008: .220/.313/.359, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 37 R

Oh my did Jason Varitek suck the place up last year; double digit homers aside el Capitan had a horror show at the plate in 2008 and still came away with effectively a two-year contract despite the awful offence and the apparent inability to throw guys out. Don’t get me wrong, Varitek has been an incredible play and presence for the Sox over the years but surely the game is just about up. Admittedly the Sox have so far not been able to secure the services of a replacement and have clearly decided to simply hold the fort until such a replacement becomes available, be it Luis Exposito, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or even Joe Mauer.

Still that doesn’t protect Varitek from criticism and he needs to improve in 2009 although I can’t see any realistic reason as to why that might happen. ‘Tek’s age, combined with his stubborn desire to bat left-handed when he clearly no longer can, has risen up to bite him firmly in the ass and I wouldn’t expect more, if any improvement from the clubhouse leader.

In fact all that Varitek appears to hold are his famous intangibles and whilst I will never understand the relationship of a clubhouse I am sceptical as you how these intangibles cover up for his lack of tangibles, like the ability to hit at league average level. Then again Derek Jeter still plays shortstop for the Yankees such is the power of intangibles; Jeter being such a winner and all, they couldn’t possible move him.

At any rate, Varitek’s place in the order is ninth, although he will probably bat ahead of Jed Lowrie; if his ability to call a good game remains, which it should, and he doesn’t totally embarrass himself at the plate, which he might, then we can live with him playing the majority of the games. If George Kottaras starts to look good however, then he must be allowed to play.

2009 Projection: .213/.290/.345, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 38 R

Alternatives: George Kottaras, Dusty Brown.

Position Projection: Third Base

2009-04-02T10:35:00.000+01:00

The season is fast approaching so here’s the first of two position projections today, the first being the hot corner.

Likely Starter: Mike Lowell
2008: .274/.338/.461, 17 HR, 73 RBI, 58 R

Injury did for Mike Lowell in 2008 as the veteran third baseman and all-around good guy played just 113 games because of a severe hip problem, through which he tried to play and looked very agonised in doing so. Offseason surgery appears to have fixed the problem although to see him run the bases is to know that he hasn’t recovered just yet.

As with most of the team, Lowell represents a significant question mark because of his health and durability thanks to his surgery, age and position, which obviously requires a lot of moving about. In health and on form, Lowell is a dangerous part of this team and will capable of banging out 25 home runs and 100 RBI, which would be handy to say the least. The likelihood of that happening however is probably slim although not out of the question depending on just how quickly he can get back to his old self, if he does at all.

The FO is concerned about Lowell that much is obvious since they tried very hard to replace him in the offseason through the pursuit of Mark Teixiera, which would have led to Kevin Youkilis moving across the diamond. Suffice to say this didn’t go down well in Camp Lowell but then he should know the score and get over it without much hassle, after all he was ditched by the Marlins in the Josh Beckett trade after a poor year in 2006, I doubt this sort of thing is going to affect his play; it didn’t when the Todd Helton rumours began a year ago.

Lowell is important to this team in terms of his hitting, defence and clubhouse presence, all of which are counted on to be positives for this team. He figures to bat either six or seventh in the line-up depending on how Tito intends to align both he and Jason Bay, and should be a threat down the order; a deep batting order is a must for the Sox to see off the deep pitching of the Yankees and Rays, whose bullpens look softer this year and need to be gotten to as swiftly as possible. Overall I’m quietly confident Mike can pull it off, he’s rebounded before and although this is very different, I believe he will again.

2009 Projection: .270/.342/.480, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 70 R

Alternatives: Jed Lowrie, Nick Green, Kevin Youkilis.

Position Projection: Shortstop

2009-03-31T10:42:00.005+01:00

Likely Starter: Julio Lugo
2008: .268/.355/.330, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 27 R

If one wished to find fault with Theo Epstein’s reign at Fenway Way, they would have to look no further than shortstop. It all started so well when the second year GM booted out fan icon and all around superstar Nomar Garciaparra and replaced him with the relatively unheralded Orlando Cabrera; the move looked ludicrous at the time but as we know it worked a treat and the Sox walked home with the gold but since then, the most important position on the field has been something of a black hole for the Sox and Theo cannot escape blame.

The latest expensive flop has been Julio Lugo and his two-year stay with the Sox has been nothing short of a disaster. In his days with the then Devil Rays, Lugo was an excellent fielder who could hit for power and steal bases but since coming to Boston he’s been awful, both in the field and at the plate. Injury cut his season short in 2008 and it was probably just as well as it meant that my preferred starter, Jed Lowrie, was given a legitimate shot at playing full time, which led to a massive improvement even if Lowrie began to struggle at the plate as the season wore on due to a wrist problem.

The Sox FO has said virtually all along that they expect Lugo to be the starter and Lowrie, who can play anywhere in the infield, to be the backup. This will not be the case immediately since Lugo is still a couple of weeks away after spring surgery. The powers that be must feel that Lugo can rebound now that he should be healthy but I remain to be convinced since I’ve seen nothing to suggest that Lugo has the ability to be a threat anymore; how often do 33 year-old shortstops regain the form of their late twenties?

It’s almost as bad as expecting a catcher nearing forty to rebound but then that’s a story for later.

2009 Projection: .270/.335/.320, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 50 R

Alternative: Jed Lowrie
2008: .258/.339/.400, 2 HR, 46 RBI, 34 R

Jed Lowrie has earned a shot at the starting gig after his play last season, which admittedly suffered due to a wrist fracture during the stretch run. A slick fielder anywhere across the diamond, Lowrie was a huge upgrade over Lugo even as his hitting suffered. Lowrie is now completely healthy and having himself a solid spring, which will lead to an opening day start in the absence of the injured Lugo. With any luck he’ll come out of the gates strong and fend off Lugo’s return, which is not beyond the realms of reasoning since Lowrie’s minor league numbers suggest he can hold his own over the course of his Major League career.

It is difficult to project Lowrie’s numbers since there’s little to go off aside from last season but he should go on to be good for a decent average and potentially double digit power, basically what Lugo was before he came to Boston, and you can’t really argue with that of production from a position which still features relatively few elite power threats.

2009 Projection: .288/.345/.440, 7 HR, 60 RBI, 58 R

Rotation set - Fifth starter gig still up for grabs

2009-03-29T09:33:00.001+01:00

The season begins in a week (!!!) and Tito has set his opening rotation, well the first four spots of it anyhow. With no need for a fifth starter until April 12th, Francona has tabbed Josh Beckett to start next Monday’s opener with Jon Lester, Diasuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield to follow.

No surprises there and along with the decision to officially add Justin Masterson to the bullpen, the final two candidates for the fifth starter job, at least to begin with, are Brad Penny and Clay Buchholz. The decision will likely be made a few days from now, which gives the Sox the chance to assess Penny to see whether he is stretched out to the point of starting a Major League game.

As I said earlier in the week, I’d be up for putting Buchholz into the Majors now but I’ve tempered that slightly after considering the potential for meltdown; at least if Penny is in there we know he isn’t likely to blow up if he gets off to a bad start, which I don’t think he will anyway.

On a side issue, if Penny excels and Buchholz dominates in Pawtucket, what happens when John Smoltz is ready? I can’t really see Tim Wakefield in the bullpen; fortunately that won’t be a decision for me to make.

Speaking of Smoltz, he appears to be well on course for his midseason debut and it appears the most troubling concern is a lack of patience, “I’m not a guy that stays patient. I want to get out there and push the envelope a little bit. But I’ve really been staying true to what they want me to do. There’s no advantage to going faster. Now that we’re getting closer, I have to make the most work in the shortest period of time.”

I don’t want to be overconfident but you know your team has deep pitching when Justin Masterson can’t get into the rotation and Michael Bowden hasn’t even been mentioned this spring. The time for Smoltz will come and there’s no doubt something will go awry in the interim requiring his presence but for now, the Sox look stacked.

Position Projection: Second Base

2009-03-26T14:48:00.003Z

Day two of the stolen idea to look at each position on the team before the season starts, and as with yesterdays opener second base is pretty securely in the hands of little Dustin Pedroia, so much so there’s no real need to discuss other candidates.

Likely Starter: Dustin Pedroia
2008: .326/.376/.493, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 118 R

Dustin Pedroia has played two full seasons in the Major Leagues, winning the Rookie of the Year award after his first campaign and the MVP after his second; not a bad start to a career it has to be said. Hitting 17 home runs when you’re generously listed as 5’ 8” is pretty impressive as well and its all down to hand eye coordination since Pedroia swings like a man far taller and should by rights not be very good at all, and yet is he one of the very best playing the game today.

Pedroia surpassed his rookie season in practically every way imaginable, even adding basestealing to his repertoire, going 20-21 for stolen bases on the year. After signing a well below value six-year contract extension a couple of months ago, it’s a fair bet to say that Pedroia will be one of the most underpaid players in the league for much of the next decade, another example of the FO’s brilliance and a marker for how Pedroia operates; he’s still going to make a lot more than I am ever likely to but he’s decided to sacrifice making as much as possible to stay with his team and constantly pursue championships, which just about sums up the little engine that could.

Pedroia is also the reigning Gold Glove owner at 2B adding to the Sox’s formidable infield defence and also whacked 54 doubles, pretty much cementing himself as the game’s best player, even if I would have picked Kevin Youkilis as the MVP. Due to his incredible self-confidence and otherworldly attitude towards excelling in every facet of the game, it’s pretty unlikely that Pedroia will regress at all in 2009 and could win up exceeding last year’s numbers.

I count myself among those that considers the two-hole one of the most important positions in the line up and when your best player fills that position your looking pretty good to score some runs when you’ve got the likes of Youkilis and Jason Bay hitting behind him. Its not impossible to see Pedroia hit 25+ home runs at some point of the career and then you have to start considering him a middle of the order bat, something nobody expected of him even a year ago.

2009 Projection: .336/.415/.511, 23 HR, 90 RBI, 110 R

Suffice to say the decision to lock up Pedroia and Youkilis for the better part of the next decade will result in a lot of runs being scored for a reasonable price; even if you combine both their salaries over the next four seasons they won’t make much more than Mark Teixiera each year even at the height of their contracts (I know I’ve brought up the Teixiera contract a couple of times already but any opportunity to bitch about the MFY must be taken up).

So far their hasn’t been much to discuss in this series since the two positions I’ve covered have been locks; tomorrow I’ve write about shortstop which will throw up a few question marks since in my view Julio Lugo isn’t good enough and opinion seems to be divided on the merits of Jed Lowrie as the starter, which he will be at least until Lugo returns from injury. Aside from catcher this appears to be the biggest potential problem on the field for the Sox and needs to be sorted out post-haste if they are going to succeed in their ambitions this season.

Should Buchholz be in the rotation?

2009-03-26T13:13:00.002Z

Clay Buchholz is having himself quite a spring down in Fort Myers, and perhaps its time to consider putting him into the rotation. Admittedly, spring stats mean very little but there has to be something in the dominance that Buchholz has laid down this year; in 19.2 innings of spring ball, Buchholz has allowed exactly one earned run on 13 hits and 3 walks with 15 strikeouts notched up in the process. His curveball has so far been dynamite and judging by his impressive late season run in Portland last year leading into this preseason, it appears the 24-year old righty has regained the self confidence that made him look so devastating during his 2007 debut run with the big club.

In all likelihood Buchholz will probably start the season in Pawtucket but with questions remaining over the health of Brad Penny, and with John Smoltz still months away from game action himself, perhaps it might be worth utilizing a talented, young and completely healthy pitcher in the fifth rotation spot, knowing that if it doesn’t work out there are other options available.

Admittedly should this happen and Buchholz get shelled again his confidence could shatter but I wouldn’t be asking this question if I thought he couldn’t do it, and besides, though he still just 24 he is not a little kid and is going to have to face Major League opposition eventually; why not try him now before the pressure of a midseason stretch run?

Buchholz has the talent of an ace pitcher, and whilst his value at the moment might be best utilized in a trade for a young catcher, we cannot forget that if he reaches his potential he could be a great for this club; looking forward to the winter of 2010, when Josh Beckett reaches free agency, it’d be nice to go into that situation with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz atop our rotation, in their prime years and destroying all comers; surely its time to see if that future can be a reality.

UPDATE: Tony Mazz disagrees; each to his own I suppose.

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Elsewhere, it would appear that Tampa Bay hurler David Price is going to start the season at Triple A so that the team can control his workload and he can work on some outstanding development issues. Yeah, and if you believe that you’ll probably believe anything; the Tampa front office is amongst the best in the game and they know how to manage their roster; this is naught but a ploy to delay Price’s arbitration clock for long enough to provide the team with an extra year of control over his services, much in the same manner as Evan Longoria’s later than expected start to his own Major League career.

In Longoria’s case it probably help the team when they came to negotiate the rookie’s long term contract and you can see the sense in hold Price back so they can keep a hold on him for a season longer, especially when you have to work with Tampa Bay’s budget and have a rotation of five very capable pitchers in place even with Price not around to be a part of it.

The Sox have done this themselves and it does seem to be a common occurrence these days, as teams move away from free agency and concentrate more and more on developing and then keeping their own players. I don’t think for a second that it was sheer chance that made Manny Delcarman miss arbitration eligibility by a mere seven days, but rather a carefully manipulated ploy of the FO to make the most of their resources, something you would expect from such a well run organisation.

In any case, the fact that David Price will not be starting the season in the Majors is a boon for the Sox, since I doubt we’ll be seeing any major struggles from the fireballing left-hander and good as they are, the Rays will be that little bit worse in the short term for making this decision, even if the long term benefits greatly outweigh this.

Position Projection: First Base

2009-03-25T10:05:00.001Z

What you see here is the first part in a series leading up to opening day, which looks at each position on the field and how the Sox intend to fill it. I stole this method from Nick & Nick’s Twins Blog, which you can find on my blog listings to the right. First off is unsurprisingly first base, one of the easiest to project.

Likely Starter: Kevin Youkilis
2008: .312/.390/.569, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 91R

The Greek God of Walks had himself a breakout year in 2008, getting over his previous late season stumbles to come third in the MVP voting, an award I believed he deserved to win. An impeccable defender who actually earned his Gold Glove in 2007, Youk has swiftly became perhaps the most essential member of the team, what with his prowess on the field and his attitude off it.

Before the start of last season I would have hoped for a similar line although the 29 homers caught me completely by surprise. Youk sacrificed some of the walks in order to hit for more power but his OBP didn’t suffer because of his excellent batting average; a whole package which for me justified MVP selection, although I can hardly complain at wee Dustin winning the award.

As for 2009, Youk and his new extension are likely to be good for similar numbers although a slight regression wouldn’t be a surprise. The Sox need Youk to be a consistent middle-of-the-order bat and he should be that for the next few years thanks to his talent and work ethic; his 2008 numbers actually surpassed those of Mark Teixiera and although that’s not likely to happen again this season, the difference won’t be worth the gap in salary.

As I mentioned, Youk was previously prone to getting off to a fast start and then not being to sustain it past the All Star break but 2008 broke with that pattern; since he’ll be counted on all the more with the question marks hanging over Mike Lowell, David Ortiz and JD Drew, this needs to become a new pattern as the Sox don’t have the luxury of having as deep a line-up as in previous seasons, hence the chase for Teixiera in the first place.

Fortunately his eye at the plate isn’t likely to diminish anytime soon so Youk is as good a bet as any to carry over last year’s performance into future years, which is good for us and not so good for everybody else.

2009 Projection: .290/.375/.560, 24 HR, 110 RBI, 110 R

So far so good for Georgie

2009-03-25T07:21:00.000Z

MFY 7-1 Sox

Yeah the final score says the Sox got a spring training whipping from the MFY last night but that aside, Tim Wakefield pitched 5 2/3 of one run ball, giving up just four hits whilst his catcher, George Kottaras looked more than comfortable handling the always entertaining knuckleball. Suffice to say this is a good sign, the new battery-mates recorded five strikeouts and Kottaras looked as comfortable as can be, which could be down to the zero pressure atmosphere of spring training or, as I am hoping, is a sign of things to come.

The bullpen collapsed after the starters had left with the Yankees inflicting a sixth run eighth on Manny Delcarman and Devern Hansack, the latter of whom allowed Austin Jackson’s grand slam to blow the game open but that’s irrelevant given what we saw earlier in the game; Tim Wakefield may be coming towards the end of his career but his innings are still important so if George can handle the pitch then our chances of success this season can only increase.

Today is another important day, as JD Drew returns to the line-up to face the Reds and John Smoltz will throw his first bullpen session of the year. With twelve days until the season opener it looks like business is picking up nicely across in Florida, I just wish the days would dwindle a bit faster!

Schilling says goodbye

2009-03-24T07:23:00.003Z

The Bloody Sock. The Mouth. The Postseason Master. The Horse’s Ass.

Curt Schilling has retired.

The CHB gets his obituary in here and doesn’t quite manage to hold back on the odd jibe. Chad Finn says that Schilling is a “no doubt” Hall of Fame pitcher, which I’m pretty sure is the case although there is a nagging concern about his perception by a number of the media types who actually cast the votes.

Rob Neyer, sporting a shifty new photo on ESPN.com, agrees with Finn, as does Jason Stark who says he’ll be voting yes to Schilling in 2012. Gerry Callahan calls Schilling the “anti A-Rod” which I like and believe should be Curt’s official job title from now on. Sean McAdam calls on his own memories of Schilling vow to break the Curse in 2004 whilst Ken Rosenthal muddies the waters a tad in his own report.

I think that’s enough links to get the message across; Curt Schilling was a big mouth jerk but he meant what he said and delivered on his promises. He came to Boston to beat the Yankees and win a World Series in a city where it hadn’t been done for 86 years, and he went and did it. He pretty much sacrificed the final years of his career just to win those all-important games in October 2004, and still managed to win another championship four seasons later.

Sure the relationship between the Sox and Curt ended pretty badly but that’s not surprising given the character in question and the Sox’s business-like attitude to its players, and shouldn’t be allowed to cloud the fact that Curt Schilling should be heralded as one of the most prominent Boston sports figures ever, for the simple reason that he did what few ever managed, and it likely wouldn’t have been achieved without the brash righty.

I wonder what the odds are on a midseason comeback?

We’ll be seeing you in good time

2009-03-23T10:07:00.002Z

Junichi Tazawa and Daniel Bard, arguably the most impressive spring performers to date, have both been optioned to the minor leagues to continue their impressive development. Both have surprised the powers that be during the course of their stay in Major League camp and it shouldn’t be too long before we see both in The Show, should their seasons go the way their spring campaigns have.

Bard especially looks ready for the big leagues, his command issues of two seasons ago have evaporated and the prospect of having that triple digit fastball in the Sox’s bullpen is saliva inducing to say the least. Bard will likely begin his season with Pawtucket but assuming everything goes well we should the flamethrowing righty at Fenway come midseason.

Tazawa meanwhile is a more interesting decision; he will begin the season with Portland (AA) as expected and the plan was for him to spend the season there, which he probably still will, although the Japanese hurler has certainly raised some eyebrows with his performances this spring. Tazawa has obviously been much heralded by the media types since his move to the States, despite the more grounded assessments of most scouts, but this performance should do much to increase the hype.

I believe the plan is for Tazawa to be a starter in the minors but his long-term future could be as reliever. Whatever the future holds, it certainly looks a bright one for this pair of talented pitching prospects, the new wave if you will now that Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz appear to be on the brink.

One point of potential excitement is Buchholz’s bid to be a genuine rotation option from the start of the season, as opposed to an injury fill-in as was previously expected. We all know Buchholz has the talent but after last seasons implosion, concerns obviously remain as to his ability to apply that talent against Major League opposition; his spring performance so far has been more than impressive so perhaps the youngster is finding his way, albeit a bit later than we’d all hoped.

Twisted Ankle does for Youk

2009-03-19T08:59:00.001Z

Cancel the WBC immediately!

In all seriousness though, the naysayers will be out in full force now that both Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis have been hurt playing for Team USA, although the severity of the those injuries will beg the question as to why its such a big deal; an ankle sprain, or whatever the term is, could happen anytime and has little or nothing to do with the WBC.

The total pussification of what seems like a simple twisted ankle means that the Boston Complaint Core (i.e. Tony Mazz and the CHB) will probably try and twist this into a reason for the abolition of international competitive baseball. Perhaps that’s harsh but previous experience, especially with the latter columnist, would seem to agree in my favour.

Speaking of Pedroia, the little big man expects to be in the line-up for the Sox against the Marlins this Saturday, which is reassuring although neither player will return to Team USA and will instead stick in Fort Myers and continue their preparations for the season with their regular teammates in Florida.

Youkilis, who signed a $41 million deal this offseason, is obviously going to be counted on to carry much of the Sox’s offensive weight this season with JD Drew, Mike Lowell and David Ortiz all carrying pretty significant question marks going into the coming season, and his health, along with that of wee Dustin, is of key importance when considering the chances of the Sox making it deep into the postseason, should they make it at all.

Fortunately neither injury seems particularly bothersome and as yet there has been no more significant news regarding the pains of Drew and Lowell, which I assume is a good thing. We’re just going to have to live with the fact that Drew’s back is going to force him to miss time at some point this season, although we could really do with a strong comeback from Lowell, especially since we’re short on effective replacements once you get past Rocco Baldelli and the injured Mark Kotsay; perhaps we might actually get to see some of Chris Carter this season.

Carter, acquired in the Wily Mo Pena with Washington a couple of years ago, has always been perceived as having a major league bat but not a major league position. According to SoxProspects.com, Carter has an excellent approach to hitting and whilst his defence is poor, he at least has a good arm. Both he and Jeff Bailey can reasonably expect to see Major League pitching this season; at least once Brad Wilkerson has proven he no longer has it, which has so far appeared to be the case this spring.

Its almost a lock that some of these guys will be needed this season; players like Carter and Nick Green are going to find ways onto the 25-man roster at some point because players like JD Drew and Mike Lowell are like as not going to miss some games. The quicker we can get the replacements up to speed in the big time the better; we’ll be better for it down the road.

Bard canned

2009-03-18T18:16:00.005Z

Looks like Josh Bard's second go around with the Sox will go down as being worse than the first, if that's possible, as the veteran catcher has been cut today, leaving rookies George Kottaras and Dusty Brown fighting for the backup spot behind Jason Varitek.

Not surprising really although Bard was having a solid enough camp catching for Tim Wakefield; it just didn't seem worth $1.7MM to keep Bard around when George Kottaras should be more than capable in fulfilling the role of backup catcher.

I can well see one of Kottaras or Brown becoming number one come seasons end, although I still wouldn't rule out a trade for a young up and comer, especially since Clay Buchholz has been hot so far this spring.

Worth keeping an eye on, though I have no wish to see Buchholz or Daniel Bard traded elsewhere.

UPDATE: It is Georgie's job to lose, as it probably should have been from the start. Anyone else think he could be the starter before the end of the season?

We hardly knew ye Wes Littleton

2009-03-18T09:21:00.001Z

Claimed by Milwaukee, the sidearm reliever will not be missed. An awful spring ERA of 18.56 made it virtually impossible for Littleton to crack the roster, especially since the bullpen is a position of strength for the Sox.

That bullpen features some serious arms, as laid out below: -

Jonathan Papelbon
Takashi Saito
Hideki Okajima
Manny Delcarman
Ramon Ramirez
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson

Not too shabby and when you consider that Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Junichi Tazawa and Daniel Bard are all on the outside looking in, well its pretty obvious that Wes Littleton had no shot at making the team. Hopefully he’ll have better luck with the Brewers, I shan’t be losing any sleep over this one.

Fair deal?

2009-03-18T08:50:00.000Z

As we all now know, the Sox have tied Jon Lester down to a five-year contract worth $30 million, a record for a pitcher with two years service time. The deal breaks down thus: -

09: $1MM
10: $3.75MM
11: $5.75MM
12: $7.625MM
13: $11.625MM
14: Team Option $13MM or $250K buyout

Is that what I had in mind? As a bald Texan used to say, “Oh Hell yeah!”

Seriously though what’s not to like about this deal; sure there are some concerns over potential regression after a career high innings total in 2008 but those concerns are minor at worst considering Lester looks terrific this spring and arguably goes into the season as the teams ace, at least until Josh Beckett, who looks in good nick himself, reasserts himself against competitive opponents in MLB play.

Lester will make almost exactly the same as Scott Kazmir over the same period of service time, which is more than fair, and almost exactly what I asked for when I started my obsession with this extension some two months ago. The difference is that I believe Lester to be a better pitcher than Kazmir, and a steal for $42.75 million over the next six hopefully glorious seasons.

This is obviously not the first such robbery Theo Epstein has perpetrated this offseason and probably won’t be the best since Dustin Pedroia’s extension is ridiculously cheap for the player in question. Suffice to say the FO gets pretty high marks for their work this winter; the 2009 Sox do have significant question marks make no mistake, but with Lester, Pedroia, Youk and company set to be around for a good long while the team will always be competitive come crunch time.

Yes!!!

2009-03-15T22:40:00.001Z

It's official, my prayers have been answered.

That is all for now.

Will my prayers be answered today?

2009-03-15T10:57:00.001Z

A few weeks ago I went on and on about signing Jon Lester to an extension similar to that of Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, a week ago it looked on the cards and today could well be the day. Suffice to say I will be looking on with baited breath as the Sox prepare to make my wish come true and sign the ace lefty to a five year $30 million deal that could buy out two whole free agency years, an admittedly more common occurrence these days but still a steal nonetheless.

With Lester, DP, Youk and Ellsbury under team control for half the next decade, the future can only be bright, especially once the likes of Lars Anderson begin their own Major League careers. Much kudos to the FO this offseason; sure injuries could kick 2009 into touch but the path for the future is set and to me, it looks pretty damn fine.

Now about that long-term deal for Jonathan Papelbon...

And lo the injuries did mount up

2009-03-15T10:43:00.000Z

Julio Lugo is likely out for a month with a torn meniscus, whilst the WBC has struck to potentially deprive us of Dustin Pedroia, who has suffered a strained oblique; suffice to say this blows,

"I was hitting extra yesterday and kind of felt some soreness," Pedroia told reporters in Miami. "Started taking flips today and I kind of felt a shooting pain a little bit. Our hitting coach, Reggie Smith, said, 'Hey, that's it. Go get checked out.' Our trainer, obviously, called the Red Sox and I'll get checked out by the doctors there. I think it's more precautionary than anything.

And you wonder why there is criticism of the WBC, although to be fair, there should be international competition, and when else could it be held? Hopefully Dustin is right and it is precautionary because of all the hits the team can afford to take, a long-term injury to the reigning MVP is not one of them.

The list of potential injury threats does seem to be growing but all is not lost, Mike Lowell has done OK so far and JD Drew is still standing so the sky isn’t falling down just yet. A look at the calendar shows the season begins in three weeks so it’s time to start getting ready for another long hard slog and ramp up the bloggage in the process.

Smoltz can’t bear to watch

2009-03-05T09:57:00.000Z

In perhaps the least surprising story of the spring so far, other than the one reporting JD Drew’s back problems, new Sox starting pitcher John Smoltz has expressed his frustration at having to watch his new team mates from the sidelines as he continues his rehabilitation from last June’s shoulder surgery.

In Atlanta, Smoltz was The Guy and as such was leaned upon to make an impact, but in Boston he’s part of a far more talented team that doesn’t need him to be ready for the season opener. In fact we may not see Smoltz make his debut until late May, a fact which is difficult for Smoltz, the ultimate gamer, to deal with,

"It's much harder than I expected," Smoltz said. "And I knew that. I mean, I knew it would have its challenges. Each day I come here with a little bit of a mind-set to play a game with myself, and trick myself that this is part of what I need to do. It's the only way to get through it, because otherwise you get pretty bored."

The Sox have received some very positive press this year concerning how they deal with the health of pitchers shoulders, so whilst it should come as no surprise that Smoltz wants to get on, the simple fact is that the trainers know what they are doing and when John is winning big games in October, this tedium will seem a lot more palatable.

"This team has a lot of talent," Smoltz said. "That's what makes this a lot of easier, knowing you're not needed as much. I obviously like to be depended on, but this is just a bonus here. They've got everything that you could possibly want."

So whilst Smoltz is bored, he knows the score and isn’t going to cause a fuss, which is obviously important; the last thing we need is a veteran yapping off about his recovery process. As a fan I can’t wait to see John Smoltz on the mound at Fenway pitching for the Red Sox, it’s going to be a long wait until that day but it’s going to be well worth it.

And the world came crashing down

2009-03-04T10:54:00.000Z

Ok so not quite, but the injury worries we all knew would be coming are here already, although to say it’s a crisis would be a bit over the top. The AP is reporting that two key components of the 2009 squad are struggling, with Brad Penny’s shoulder not deemed strong enough to make his scheduled Thursday outing and JD Drew back in Boston for an injection in the lower back region.

Tito is playing this cool as you would expect, and its hard not to agree that there’s no need to rush Penny in any way as he looks to make it back to his pre-2008 form but with Drew, you wonder how many games we are going to get from him this year. I’m thinking less than a hundred but that’s based on a hunch rather than any sort of rational fact; although speaking as someone who has had the pleasure of back injections, I can say that the idea of then going out and playing 162 games of baseball was not high on my agenda post-needle.

As per standard practice when Drew is a hurting, the CHB is on the case to once again belittle the Sox right fielder: -

But now we are wondering again. Is Drew's balky back going to be an issue throughout the season? Is surgery a possibility? And can J.D. Drew ever gain the love and respect of the Nation? Is he going to again be just good enough to stay in the lineup, but not good enough to make a significant impact?

Now since I’m over 2000 miles away from Boston my finger may not exactly be on the pulse of Red Sox Nation but is this really the common opinion of the Boston sports fan? Sure we’re worried that Drew’s back will keep him out for a significant period of the season but what’s this about not making a significant impact? Did he not carry the team when Big Papi went down last June? Did he not blitz the Angels in October? Am I on different planet to this clown?

Anyway, the clown later goes on to express his concern that a Manny-less line-up consisting of a hurt Drew and Mike Lowell, along with a David Ortiz in decline will struggle in the powerhouse AL East, which may very well be true aside from the fact that we don’t know how Papi will hit this year. Also, what will it take for the media types to get along with the idea that Jason Bay is a good fucking baseball player? Why does he never get a mention? He is a plus hitter, an all-star and whilst he is not Manny, he is well…not Manny and therefore you have to consider the whole package.

This Sox team may not produce as many runs as it has in years past but the FO has built the 2009 version on the basis that we’re going concede less runs through good pitching and defence. Why do the likes of the CHB have to continually perpetuate the idea that the season is lost already?

I almost want Josh Beckett to come out and say he’s sore just so I can see the reaction in the Boston press; the Apocalypse is nigh!

When does the season start?

2009-02-28T13:25:00.001Z

It’s been a quite week on the blog; moving house takes up more time than you’d think. Meanwhile the spring games have started and in typical fashion I’m bored with them already, desperate for the season to start. For the record the Sox haven’t started all that well in preseason action but well who cares?

What matters is health and happiness at this time of the year and for those keeping track, Josh Bard is still on pace to be primary knuckleball catcher this season, a fact that is still pretty frightening. The first tryout went well enough, although the Sox lost to the Twins.

Bard appears to be battling George Kottaras for playing time and a good showing whilst catching Wake will make for a pretty handy case for getting the job. My thoughts on the whole Varitek, Bard and Kottaras situation have already been covered before and suffice to say I want to see some more of George Kottaras before we simply cast him off in favour of the veterans but if Bard shows he can catch the knuckler and he can hit like he did pre-2008 then he will get (and deserve) a place on the team.

The changeup seems to have made an appearance this camp, with twin aces Josh Beckett and Jon Lester showing more of a commitment to the slower pitch; if both of these elite pitchers can add something else to their repertoire (and remain healthy) then let the good times roll.

On that health point, Beckett seems to moving along quite nicely and a happy and injury free Josh Beckett will be critical for the Sox if they want to achieve anything in 2009.

36 days to go...

Papi talks, takes a swing at steroid users

2009-02-17T19:27:00.000Z

David Ortiz, who looks in great shape by the way, spoke yesterday to the media about steroid users in the wake of the Alex Rodriquez nightmare that is now hanging over the game. I thought it was understood that you didn’t damn your peers without permission of the all-powerful and totally useless Players Association but in typical Big Papi style, he doesn’t seem to give a shit, "I test you, you test positive, you're going to be out.”

Ok so it isn’t that extreme; especially since the Large Father went on to say that those players now getting caught out for past grievances, such as Miguel Tejada, shouldn’t be liable to prosecution, “But all that, all the drama, bringing guys to court and acting like those [are] serious criminals, it doesn't look good for the game.”

To be honest I’m not sure I can agree with that; admittedly the process could do without the usual media spectacle that surrounds high profile actions such as this but that doesn’t mean cheats should escape punishment. It’s been talked about that dragging these players through the courts disrespects the game but surely letting offenders get away with it would be even less respectful, especially to those players who worked for they achieved.

Papi goes on to say that baseball is for the families, a beacon of hope in this troubled times; surely that means steroid users should suffer this persecution since it was these people who have taken this sport and its power to lift people, and strung it through the mud.

Anyway, that enough on steroids for today; back to Fort Myers now, where it was Jon Lester’s turn to face the media today. One of my big worries going into the coming season is that Lester pitched too many innings last season as the Sox rode him all the way into the ALCS but the ace lefty himself seems pretty unconcerned,

"I'm not worried about it. As a starting pitcher, you kinda have to expect that. You want the innings, the workload. I'm not going to treat it any different. I'm just going to go pitch and hopefully get back up those numbers again this year."

Yeah, he’s an ace.

Back to the Future

2009-02-15T20:21:00.000Z

JD Drew’s back is playing up again although the Sox RF says he could play today if necessary; hard to disprove this early into Spring Training. This could be a big issue for the Sox, who are clearly relying on Drew to be a force this season, what with Manny gone.

"Just been one of them injuries that have kind of lingered and I've been able to hit and run and do all that stuff," Drew said. "Some days I wake up stiff, some days it doesn't seem to be too bad. Just in the maintenance stages."

With Rocco Baldelli dealing with health concerns of his own and Mark Kotsay on the shelf already, signing Brad Wilkerson doesn’t seem such a bad idea after all, if it ever did. Meanwhile, Josh Beckett’s long-term future is discussed by Tony Masarotti; I can well see Beckett walking after 2010 since the Sox don’t like to commit big dollars to pitchers about to turn 30.

Also important for 2009 is the health of projected shortstop Jed Lowrie, who dealt with severe wrist problems last year; it’s worth noting that David Ortiz took a whole season to do away with his own wrist issues, if they have truly gone, and to assume that Lowrie is totally healthy would be foolhardy. It’s interesting to note that the injury concerns of early spring are not concerned with the likes of Takashi Saito or John Smoltz, but rather the lingering issues of last season; worrying to say the least.

Spring Training Action

2009-02-14T11:19:00.003Z

Spring is well and truly underway in Fort Myers and for sick freaks like me who are content to watch footage of the players warming up...you can do so here. Marvellous isn’t it?

Meanwhile, John Smoltz has been on the interview stage to talk about Boston, the Braves and what to expect from our upcoming midseason call-up. Various videos and quotes on the Globe’s Extra Bases blog, the staple diet of any obsessed Spring Training fanatic.

Slightly off-topic on Ian Browne’s mailbag but something I’ve had in mind for a little while is John Farrell’s future:

The Red Sox's pitching success, and pitching coach John Farrell's role in that success, is no great secret. Why then has he not been presented with an irresistible temptation that takes him from the Sox? Don't get me wrong, I'd like nothing better than for Farrell to still be here when manager Terry Francona decides he's had enough fun. But that's likely some ways off. What have the Sox done to keep Farrell with them so long, through such a critical period, and what do you think it would take to entice Farrell away?-- D. Benjamin

The first thing to know is that Farrell absolutely loves Boston and being part of the Red Sox's organization. That is a big reason why he turned down the opportunity to explore managing the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2007 and the Seattle Mariners last year. But I think Farrell is also a very bright guy, and if he leaves the Red Sox, he wants it to be for a great organization and for a team that has a realistic chance to contend.

Nobody disputes that Farrell is probably overqualified for his current position, and the Red Sox feel grateful about that every day. When Farrell does have a chance to explore another opportunity, he could have his choice of being a manager or a general manager. That is how well he is thought of in baseball circles.

I’ve been wondering how in the Hell we still have Farrell on the staff and here would be the answer; he wants to join a winner and since there aren’t any positions available at successful clubs he may as well stick with us in a lesser role. Something to watch out for since I imagine his input would be very difficult to replace, if and when he does move on to a bigger job.

Presenting your (hopefully) 2009 World Champion Boston Red Sox

2009-02-11T18:00:00.000Z

So now that Alex Rodriquez has admitted cheating and the sport of baseball has been irrevocably dragged through the mud, it’s time to preview the 2009 version of the Boston Red Sox! Only by focusing on the business of actually watching the game will I be able to get over the disappointment of seeing the heir apparent to the already-sullied home run record join the list of those who have sullied it.

Here is my expected opening day line-up, health willing: -

C: Jason Varitek
1B: Kevin Youkilis
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Jed Lowrie
3B: Mike Lowell
RF: JD Drew
CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
LF: Jason Bay
DH: David Ortiz

That is a good team, there’s no two ways about it and it will produce runs. How many is in question given that this line-up has big question marks; David Ortiz and Mike Lowell had major injury problems in 2008, which they are expected to be free from this season. However both are now approaching their mid-thirties and I never heard the saying that you get healthier as you get older.

On the flip side of the coin is the consistency of youth; I think we can all safety say that Dustin Pedroia has set his own standard and is a fair bet to maintain it for the next fifteen years but when it comes to Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie, the projected centre fielder and shortstop, all we’ve seen is glimpses of excellence and sizable bumps in the road.

Fortunately, Theo knows how to build a bench and whilst I have in no confidence in Julio Lugo as a regular player its not much of a stretch to see him fulfil a useful backup role. In the outfield, we are well covered with Mark Kotsay (post injury), Rocco Baldelli and Brad Wilkerson all talented enough to cobble together a seasons worth of production in the event Ellsbury fails to live up to his immense potential.

Catcher is obviously a concern with Tek running on fumes and no visible replacement in the system. Acquiring a young catcher has been on the to-do list for Theo for a couple of years now but he’s not been able to pull it off since every other GM seems intent of raping us in any deal. No doubt something will come up in the next eighteen months, it usually does, although don’t hang your hopes on Joe Mauer; there’s no-way Minnesota, even as tight-fisted as they are, will let him go.

Onto the pitching staff now, which many see as the teams’ great strength; again there are significant question marks which need to be overcome but if they are this team could well go all the way. Here is the choice of starting pitchers: -

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Diasuke Matsuzaka
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny
John Smoltz
Clay Buchholz
Michael Bowden

One would imagine the first five on that list will be the opening day rotation but come May, the latter trio should all be in the mix, posing some very interesting conundrums for management. Of course, injuries and ineffectiveness will likely kick in at some point, making this level of depth very welcome indeed. To put it this way, when CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett blow out their arms, the Yankees will be in the crapper.

If a similar situation arises in Boston, we will not be.

The bullpen is probably the biggest question mark of all, as you would expect but it also has the potential to be a weapon. Here is the likely group going into ST: -

Jonathan Papelbon
Takashi Saito
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen
Javier Lopez
Justin Masterson
Hideki Okajima
Wes Littleton

Not a bad group and potentially one of the best, that’s the theme of this season really, could be great, could be average; much will depend on health with this team. Masterson could actually be included on the list of starters but I see him as a reliever where he has a much better chance of being an elite pitcher. Papelbon, Delcarmen and Okajima have settled themselves into key roles and should be joined by Saito and Ramirez, two pitchers with excellent track records.

All in all another damn fine roster assembled by the FO, and one well capable to lifting the gold come October. As I said, it’s about health more than anything although future appearances from Daniel Bard and/or Michael Bowden would help in that regard.

95 wins is achievable by this team and whilst that might not actually be enough, I would like to think it will be. That’s my magic number every year; if the Sox match that and don’t get past the Yankees and Rays, then so be it.

Where do we go from here?

2009-02-09T22:36:00.001Z

Alex Rodriquez, perhaps the greatest player in the history of the sport of baseball, has admitted taking banned substances between 2001 and 2003. Obviously this is being covered in all of the major news circles in the States.

I don’t know quite what to say, I’ve always been pretty ignorant of the drug fiasco surrounding baseball, contending that it was a minority that were letting everybody else down; now however three of the games true greats, Barry Bonds, Rogers Clemens and Rodriquez have been tarred with the steroid brush, bringing the entire history of the game into question. At least Rodriquez has come out and admitted it, although not willingly, and whatever his faults he deserves a small amount of credit for that.

The real tragedy is what happens to the fans’ belief in their sport, as described here by Jason Stark; aside from the odd few it’s hard to look at any current MLB player and rule out the possibility of steroid abuse. That is a terrible thought and I imagine it’ll be much worse when the list of the 104 players that failed in 2003 is finally revealed in its entirety; they’re be some Red Sox on it I imagine and that’ll feel a whole lot worse.

As for the near future, I would think that A-Rod will be vilified in a manner not previously seen outside of Boston and New York; the King turned Pariah and another black mark for the powers that be. It’s pretty laughable that Bud Selig made $17 million last year when his tenure will be forever know as the steroid era; isn’t it about time heads started to roll upstairs?

Spring rolls in...sort of

2009-02-06T23:34:00.000Z

It’s truck day yay!

Incredible to think the season is just 59 days away, especially when my homeland has been subject to the largest snowfall in recent memory. Today is a pretty symbolic day, not just because the gear has left Fenway for Fort Myers, but also because I renewed by membership for MLB.tv, the magical package that allows me to follow the Sox. Thanks to the Pound choking like A-Rod in the playoffs the fee has actually gone up this year, but it’s still a bargain for what you get in return, something of a rarity in these days of sports rip-offs.

On the news front there’s been a little action in the last few days; Mark Kotsay is having back surgery which means he will likely miss the start of the season. This makes sense of the decision to sign OF/1B Brad Wilkerson to a minor league deal; Wilkerson’s career has faded pretty badly in recent years but he can still draw walks and hit for some power, so for a small fee it’s another solid risk, given that we won’t have to rely on him even slightly, barring a string of major early-season injuries.

Elsewhere, Papi looks in good shape, fuelling talk of a post-wrist injury resurgence that is probably a vital requirement for success this year. It’s hard not to look at these photos and think that David won’t bang out 50 homers but I’m more hopeful than optimistic; the wrists can be a bastard to heal and we really won’t know for sure until the Large Father starts mashing for real, until then we can but pray.

The Varitek deal is official which isn’t news so much as a quick reminder that with the deal done the Red Sox offseason is now officially over. We do still need a young catcher and probably ought to find out what George Kottaras is capable of; I don’t like Miguel Montero or Jarrod Saltalamacchia as much as others, especially when the cost would be Clay Buchholz, but we do need a future replacement for the aging captain.

Mark Wagner is the highlight of Boston’s system although I don’t know much about him or his likely readiness for say 2011 but we need more options certainly; people will look to the potential free agency of Joe Mauer after 2010 and salivate but I can’t see how he ever leaves Minnesota, even considering the inaptitude of GM Bill Smith and the penny-pinching of the ruling Pohlad family.

We might need to aim to acquire a less ballyhooed answer, such as Seattle’s Ron Johnson or Adam Moore, or perhaps Florida’s John Baker, players who are well thought of in their organisations but who wouldn’t require the forfeiture of multiple prospects (or in Baker’s case, are a player who might be worth it). This is pure conjecture and I may very well be talking utter rubbish when considering the availability of these players but I don’t see how or Montero or Salty have done even slightly enough with their Major League careers to warrant the cost of trading for them, and would much rather see Theo and Co get creative, something they are fortunately very good at.

Spring is a coming!

Quiet Time...Jon Lester extension plea: Part 3

2009-02-02T19:03:00.003Z

Not much is happening at the moment despite so many free agents still left unsigned; spring training is just nine days away according to MLB.com with truck day just four days hence. The Sox are pretty much set and I intend to do a review of the 2009 team when pitchers and catchers report; this certainly isn't the team I envisioned heading for Fort Myers.

Outside of Boston, Kansas City ace Zach Greinke has just signed a four-year $38 million extension, allowing the Royals to buy out two free agent years for $13.5 million apiece; this deal is pretty similar to the three-year $28.5 million extension signed by Scott Kazmir allowing me to make another comparison between a signed pitcher and Jon Lester.

Greinke is pretty similar to Cole Hamels and matches up with Lester in a same fashion. Greinke has also signed his deal after his first year of arbitration eligibility, much like Kazmir, whose deal will be worth a near identical $39.5 million should Tampa exercise his 2012 team option. This sets the bar for Jon Lester, if the Sox are able to persuade the big lefty to sign a six-year pact worth something in the region of $45 million, then they should pursue it immediately.

I know it’s a risk but they have done it for the Dice man so why not do it for a younger, better left-handed starter? With the Pedroia and Youkilis deals done and arbitration avoided with Jonathan Papelbon this has been a pretty productive offseason for Theo and company; an extension for Jon Lester would push it way over the top.

I don’t know if it’s even been considered but if it has, get it done!

Also, check on Rany Jazayerli’s take on the Greinke deal, I’d hate to burst that optimistic bubble but the backloaded nature of that contract just screams trade to me.

Perhaps we could get him...

Making an exception

2009-01-28T00:06:00.002Z

Update: It's a done deal. I think the Sox caved here but then they could end up spending less on retaining 'Tek for two years than they would have paid for one if he'd accepted arbitration. All things considered, I'm glad he's staying. More on this later as the roster now appears to be pretty much set.

The current management team in place on Yawkey Way has always stressed one rule above all others when it comes to a free agent; determine a maximum price and DO NOT exceed it, for anybody. This has led to some pretty high profile departures since 2004, particularly those of Pedro and Johnny Damon, who both winded up in New York. Also applicable are prospective new employees such as Mark Teixeira, who probably would have signed for the Sox if they’d gone above the Yankees offer.

There have been no breaks in that stance until now, as reports have filtered in that the FO has made an offer to catcher and Captain, Jason Varitek. The offer allegedly stands at one-year $5 million plus a dual option for 2010, which gives the Sox a Team Option worth another $5 million, or Tek a $3 million Player Option should the team decline.

This in a market in which a direct comparable based on performance, Greg Zaun, received just $1.5 million?

Bad move Theo.

Admittedly this is small change for a franchise like Boston but even so; why overpay? It’s not like Varitek would be earning that money; he can no longer hit or throw runners out and whilst he “calls a good game” I don’t see how anything but sentimentality could have persuaded the FO that this was a good idea. Between Josh Bard, George Kottaras and Dusty Brown, the coaching staff will be able to cobble together what Tek is likely to provide for a fraction of the cost and with the added chance that maybe, just maybe one of them turns out better than expected.

The deadline for an answer is supposedly Friday; since Tek still seems to fancy himself as an elite catcher I can well see him declining (after the arbitration fiasco anything is possible) and as Ken Rosenthal has mentioned, he could well wind up with the MFY since they would only have to give up a fourth round draft pick to secure him. I wouldn’t like that but we’ll cross that bridge in good time.

Papelbon avoids arbitration

2009-01-21T10:38:00.003Z

I really thought a hearing was on the cards with our fearsome closer, who hasn’t been shy about telling everyone he intends to set the bar for relievers in terms of salary. To be fair, with a $6.25 million deal signed and sealed for 2009, he has achieved that aim by setting a record for a first year arbitration eligible deal for a relief pitcher, but without the messiness associated with a hearing.

Theo Epstein has now managed to maintain his record of never going to a hearing since Javier Lopez has also agreed to a contract worth $1.35 million. He came close with Wily Mo Pena in 2007 but managed to settle within minutes of the scheduled hearing.

This is more than I thought both would end up earning but still pretty fair considering what the free agent relievers are getting these days. Brian Fuentes and Frankie Rodriquez are both inferior to Papelbon in virtually every way imaginable so there’s really no argument against his salary figure and Lopez has become what I thought he couldn’t be, a go-to guy in the bullpen so kudos to him for getting the job done and earning a contract worthy of that upturn in performance.

Also in the articles linked is the brief mention of David Aardsma being traded to Seattle for 20-year-old LHP Fabian Williamson. The Mariners become the latest organisation to try and mould Aardsma’s power arm into something useful; good luck with that. Aardsma started his stint with the Sox well enough but it soon went sour due to those ever-present control issues and considering his portfolio its somewhat surprising he hasn’t ended up in Pittsburgh with Tyler Yates et al.

David Pauley has also been shipped out to the Orioles for non-roster reliever Randor Bierd. Pauley’s overall record for the Sox was awful but I will always remember his excellent performance at Yankee Stadium in 2006, good luck to him in the future, unless he is facing the Sox obviously.

All that remains is to find a catcher…

Markakis makes MVP’s contract look even better

2009-01-19T21:48:00.003Z

Nick Markakis is a fine baseball player; he has good power, draws a ton of walks, hits for high average and is a solid enough fielder. In many ways he is exactly like AL MVP Dustin Pedroia, no better no worse and fully deserves his shiny new six-year, $66 million contract extension to become a key part of Andy McPhail’s plan to rebuild the stricken Orioles.

This is an excellent contract figure for a high-end player in his mid-twenties and Markakis should be good value for every penny as part of the O’s talented outfield trio along with Adam Jones and newly acquired Felix Pie.

What this also means is that the deal signed by Dustin Pedroia for $40.5 million looks like a frickin’ steal, if it didn’t already. Wee Dustin will earn $25.5 million less over the same six-year period and even gave the Sox a seventh-year option on top of that.

Staggeringly good move from Theo and his office; I know that’s pretty obvious but think about it; you’d say Pedroia was the better hitter and yet he will get paid so much less than a comparable player for his troubles. I know Dustin likes it in Boston but damn that is a lot of money he could and probably should have been getting.

I still like the deal for Baltimore though, almost makes up for that stupid Mark Hendrickson signing.

Tek didn't realise his new team would have to give up a draft pick?

2009-01-18T14:01:00.003Z

Check this out from NESN.

First thought? Bullshit.

How could Jason Varitek, a Major League veteran with the best agent in the history of agents, not know that a new team would have to forfeit their first round pick to the Sox in order to sign him? That is a ridiculous statement to make and not one likely to fool anybody of any intelligence so aside from the Royals front office, nobody is buying that.

Come on Tek, your agent blew it, you blew it; just get used to the simple fact that you either sign with the Sox for one year and pocket change or you wait until after the draft and sign for four months and less pocket change.

Jon Lester extension plea: Part 2

2009-01-18T12:51:00.008Z

This blog is a place where I can voice my opinions, which is easy enough, but I would like to actually back them up and I’m still learning the best ways to do that. One of those ways is through using the brilliant FanGraphs, which I’m new too but which already provides all my statistical knowledge, something I intend to learn more about in the coming future (my knowledge of sabermetrics is basically limited to having read Moneyball at this point.)

My current opinion worth considering is that Jon Lester warrants a long-term contract, a fact that doesn’t need much argument but the other part of that opinion is that the lefty deserves less money than Cole Hamels has just received and something along the lines of the contract given to the comparable Scott Kazmir. FanGraphs obviously doesn’t tell me whether Jon Lester is prepared to sign a multi-year deal or whether he is willing to take a discount but it will help me discover whether I am right about how much deserves, or whether I’m talking rubbish.

Let’s get to the graphs...

ERA isn’t the best way to value a pitcher but aside from the ridiculous win-loss record, it is the most commonly used statistic out there that at least has some plausibility. Kazmir is obviously more experienced and has made a steady progression to become a top-level starter, whereas Hamels and Lester have gone from solid to above average in a very short space of time, leading to three very similar outcomes in 2008.

The K/BB ratio is more useful; as the peripheral stats like these often tell more about a pitchers performance since they do not rely on defence or ballpark tendencies. At the start of his Major League career, walks were a big issue for Lester but now he progressed to a better level of 2.30 K/BB in 2008. Kazmir has regressed over the last couple of seasons to the same level but Hamels is far and away the best of the trio, thanks to his high strikeout totals (196 in 2008). Hamels is more of a pure power pitcher whilst Lester and Kazmir, to some degree, rely on finesse.

I was going to use HR/9 but that would be unfair on Hamels as my level of statistical awareness hasn’t yet reached a point where I can adjust for ballparks (stay with me here I’m trying!) so instead I’ll use WHIP (Walks plus hits per inning pitched) which is a good indicator of how efficient a pitcher is getting guys out. Hamels leads again with Lester and Kazmir virtually the same.

This is a dead simple look at these three pitchers but it doesn’t take a more in-depth analysis to show that Cole Hamels is a better pitcher (thus far) than Jon Lester and Scott Kazmir, who seem practically the same player. Kazmir signed a three-year extension after his first season of arbitration eligibility whereas I’m advocating an extension for Lester now, a year before he is able to apply for arbitration. Over that period and through his extension Kazmir will have earned the following: -

2007: $427K
2008: $3.785MM
2009: $6MM
2010: $8MM
2011: $12MM
2012: $13.5MM Team Option or $2.5MM buyout

TOTAL: $43.712 (if option exercised)

Would you pay that to retain Jon Lester for the next six seasons? I would in a heartbeat given the premium for upper level starting pitching. Ideally the free agent years would be team options but that might be too much to ask for. The Sox are generally unwilling to give out long-term deals to pitchers but they have made an exception in Diasuke Matsuzaka and probably should for Lester, who outperformed Dice-BB in 2008 and will likely do the same going forward.

League MVP Dustin Pedroia has just signed a six-year deal of his own for similar money; that was team friendly as we know but in Lester’s case there is a comparable in Kazmir that should be employed if both parties, FO and Lester, are willing to sit down and talk deal.

Hopefully they will; Josh Beckett could well walk after 2010 and Lester seems a possible heir to the throne. Wake, Smoltz and Penny are likely not going to be here for much longer than two years so ensuring we have a proven ace at the top of the rotation is vital during what could otherwise be a painful transition, depending on how Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Nick Hagadone come along in the meantime.

Get it done Theo!

Thanks to FanGraphs once again for coming up with this stuff.

Phillies Ace Hamels gets extension

2009-01-17T22:39:00.006Z

Three years and $20.5 million to cover the ace lefty’s arbitration seasons after an excellent 2008 during which Hamels went 14-10 with a 3.39 on the way to the Phillies World Series win. In comparison, Tampa’s Scott Kazmir will earn $17.785 million over the same period, although Kazmir is also signed beyond that for one seasons worth of free agency plus a team option after that, which makes sense given that the Rays lefty is inferior to Hamels, who could hit the jackpot in three years time.

This is important to the Sox only when considering the long-term future of our own left hander, Jon Lester, who I would like to see locked up as soon as humanly possible. Below is how Lester matched up with Hamels in 2008, at least on a basic level: -

Obviously the win-loss records mean next to nothing but the two do seem pretty well matched although Hamels takes it on innings and strikeouts whilst getting something of a pass on the home runs considering he plays at Citizens Bank Park.

With this admittedly small sample size in mind its probably fair to say Lester doesn’t deserve more than Hamels on a long-term deal and perhaps something more in line with the deal signed by Scott Kazmir, which would hopefully buy out some free agent years, a key part of the extensions given to Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia this offseason, although in Lester’s case I would like to see team options in place of guaranteed years; he is a pitcher after all and more likely to suffer injury as a result.

Is that achievable? It does seem that younger players are getting more amiable to giving up their free agent years, especially in the current economic climate. It appears that the drive behind the Youkilis/Pedroia deals was the desire to stay with the Sox long-term, who knows if Lester shares that view; it’s possible the support he received during his cancer treatment would suggest that but that is pretty presumptuous on my part.

We know Jonathan Papelbon wants to go year to year and that’s fine by me since Paps is a reliever with a history of shoulder trouble; I can actually see the Sox needing to find a new closer in three years time since I see no chance of a long-term deal for a reliever whilst Theo Epstein is running the show; it’s just too big a risk.

Lester meanwhile seemed to thrive last year and became everything we had hoped he would be; if he is open to an extension into his free agent seasons then the FO should bite and no doubt will do if and when the chance arises, which it just might given this signing by the previously maligned Phillies GM Ruben Amaro (Raul Ibanez for fucks sake!) who comes out of this one looking pretty good, setting his office up nicely for the impending war against Ryan Howard.

Another good week

2009-01-17T21:41:00.001Z

I’ve been a bit busy and the Kevin Youkilis extension sort of passed me by. Can I just say that in my dishonest opinion, Theo and Co are owning this offseason with a string of excellent moves that reaffirm just how good at their job these people are. I mean, how do they do it? Earlier this offseason we were told that there was next to no chance Youk would sign long-term and yet here it is, done and dusted ensuring that the right side of the infield is secure for next five seasons.

Youkilis has signed for roughly $10 million a season which is well below market value considering the soon-to-be-thirty-year-old actually had a better season that Mark Teixeira in 2008. Youk is a pretty solid bet to be productive through his age thirty-four season, given his athleticism and skill set, even if he moves across the diamond should Lars Anderson appear in the near future.

2008 was obviously a breakout season for the player made famous in the book Moneyball; he hit .312/.390/.569 with 29 home runs and produced another superlative defensive season at first base to back up the Gold Glove win in 2007. It’s not a reach to say that AL MVP Dustin Pedroia was not even the MVP on his own team given Youk’s performance and whilst the three major projection systems expect his performance to regress in 2009, for $6 million Youkilis represents a bargain considering Teixeira will earn $20 million this same season (Tex is a better player but is he really that much better?)

This signing goes along with Theo’s desire to build from within and I am keeping my fingers crossed for a similar contract for Jon Lester and perhaps even Jason Bay, who is entering a contract year. People might be a bit more sceptical with Bay, given his past injuries and defensive liability but for a similar, or lesser given the Pat Burrell contract, deal Bay might just be a fit at DH in the not too distant future, giving Anderson a chance to play the field once he inevitably makes it to The Show.

Now there’s just that hole at Catcher; John Henry met with Jason Varitek this week and I still see the Sox as Tek’s only real option. Boras has fucked this one up good and proper and perhaps it’s time to just concede and have done with it.

This is good.

2009-01-13T17:44:00.004Z

Good times.

Also, Jim Rice made it into the Hall of Fame at the last attempt. To be honest, Jim Ed doesn't mean a great deal to me but it's always good to see a Red Sox enter the elite group of the games' greatest ever players.

Sox continue the trend; ink Kotsay and Saito

2009-01-10T18:48:00.002Z

Theo is being very clever here; this year’s free agent market has been cleared of most of the impact players and the Sox haven’t signed any of them, leaving the FO to figure out a different route that doesn’t involve Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden.

What they’ve done is take a chance, not on average players who might surprise, but on quality players who have been injured or ill; John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, Josh Bard and now former Dodgers closer Takashi Saito, who has signed a bargain one-year deal with an option for 2010. Now, Saito is old and coming off elbow problems which led to his non-tender but look at his record in the years before 2008; this guy can pitch and if healthy could join with MDC, Okidoke and Papelbot to form the best bullpen in all of baseball before you even figure in Ramon Ramirez et al.

Of course not all of these risks are likely to work, that’s why they’re call risks but it’s also unlikely all of them will fail, and even if they did the Sox would still have had a good team and wouldn’t be tied down to multi-year deals with the likes of Kyle Farnsworth, meaning they can simply try something new next year with all the money free again.

This is the sort of thing that separates us from the Royals.

Also signed is 1B/OF Mark Kotsay who of course was acquired by the Sox last Autumn as depth down the stretch; Kotsay didn’t hit a lot but was still a big help, sliding into first base when Mike Lowell went down with hip problems. This move means that Sox can reel out a bench consisting of Kotsay, Baldelli, Lugo and Kottaras/Brown which will cover all the angles and allow Tito to go with his preferred twelve man pitching staff.

Mark Teixeira aside, Theo and his staff are having themselves a very good offseason.

Sox choose their route for 2009

2009-01-08T18:01:00.002Z

Two important moves for the Sox today; Rocco Baldelli has officially signed on to become the team’s fourth outfielder. Contract terms haven’t been announced but this is a steal assuming Baldelli’s well documented health issues don’t affect him too much. The official site’s article covers the past in pretty good detail so I won’t repeat it here but suffice to say we’ve gotten ourselves a player who should have become a star; the talent is there so long as the Sox can get him on the field.

At just 27 Baldelli has a lot of baseball still to play, health willing, and this is the sort of move Theo Epstein seems to have lent his focus to in the absence of any realistic long term options on the free agent market. Theo appears to have decided that his team is old and creaking and therefore has placed greater importance on retaining the clubs top prospects, limiting what he can do in the trade market.

Hence the Brad Penny signing and now that of Rocco Baldelli; moves that appear likely to be followed by the incredibly surprising signing of 42-year old John Smoltz to a one year contract worth $5MM plus incentives. Whilst he’s getting on a bit and won’t actually be able to pitch until around May because of shoulder surgery, Smoltz is still a frontline pitcher and if this comes off it could be the signing of the season.

Smoltz’s record is staggering and he now gives the Sox six veteran starters as well as Michael Bowden and Clay Buchholz, and with them the depth to take on the rebuilt Yankees and annoyingly-good Rays. Smoltz pitched just 28 innings in 2008 but in that brief sample you can see his strengths; walks (8), strikeouts (36) and home runs (2) all combined for a 2.57 ERA in six appearances.

For his Hall of Fame career, Smoltz has a WHIP of just 1.17 and a 3.04 K/BB ratio to go along with the traditional 3.26 ERA and 210 wins plus 154 saves, meaning that the veteran hurler’s impact could well come from the bullpen as he comes back to health during the season.

The Sox still have holes and question marks all over the team but the idea of signing quality players to one-year deals is a good one under the circumstances; the future appears to involve Buchholz, Bowden, Daniel Bard and Lars Anderson etc. so why go for average players on long-term deals that would get in the way when these youngsters are ready? This is the question that FO appears to have asked and the answer is simply not to, resulting in the moves we see here.

Put simply, if these players are healthy then the Sox are committing daylight robbery and in this instance, hopefully crime pays quite a lot!

(Buster Olney likes the move as well.)

Update: Baldelli's contract details have emerged; this is pocket change for the Sox.

You can grow to dislike some people...

2009-01-07T00:33:00.001Z

Boo!

Signed and sealed

2009-01-06T22:25:00.003Z

I turned my back for five minutes and all of a sudden players and their agents decided they have to take the money, however pathetic the offers seem. Seriously, how bad is the Raul Ibanez signing looking right about now?

Pat Burrell has signed for AL Pennant winners Tampa Bay for a measly $16MM over two years. That’s right, Pat Burrell, better than Raul Ibanez in every way possible and several years younger, has taken one year and $15MM less than the guy replacing him in Philly. Unbelievable what a bit of patience can do for you.

Tampa’s line-up is looking pretty fearsome alongside a rotation that has added David Price this offseason; I see the Rays as favourite to repeat, at least in the AL East where the Sox are in a holding pattern and the MFY are primed to fall on their faces under the immense New York pressure, or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.

The Tampa Bay management duo, Andrew Friedman and Gerry Hunsicker, continue to look like geniuses, adding to a team that won a shitload of games against much richer opposition, a feat they will likely repeat in 2009.

Damn.

Moving on and another major signing, albeit not unexpected as Milton Bradley completes his 3-year $30MM signing with the Chicago Cubs where he’ll play mostly right field with some time in centre. On the face of it, this is another excellent signing as Bradley is a plus defender and perhaps one of the best hitters in all the Majors, as evidenced by his 2008 line of .321/.436/.563 for an OPS of .999.

The only problem, and one that will likely catch the Cubbies out, is health; Bradley has only played a 100 games in the field once, in 2004 with the Dodgers and there’s no evidence that he can do it in 2009 for the National League team that cannot simply protect him at DH. Hence the lower cost for such an elite player; the idea here is that he somehow survives the rigours and becomes the player who puts the talented Cubs over the top and into the World Series.

They’ll have to be a lot of fingers crossed in Chicago for that to happen - I don’t see it myself.

In Oakland, Jason Giambi is set to return for one-year $5.25MM with an option for 2010 worth $6.5MM. How can you not like this move? Giambi doesn’t hit for average anymore but gets on base at a good rate and has good power, both sore spots for the A’s pathetic 2008 offence. Add Giambi to Matt Holliday and suddenly you have a batting order deserving of something other than a firing squad.

Update: Turn outs Giambi is getting even less money over the two years.

Again I fail to see how Raul Ibanez can cost so much if players like Jason Giambi, who is admittedly 38, can get this little guaranteed money. Yes he’s a definite DH but has anybody in Philadelphia seen Ibanez in the field? Still makes me chuckle to watch that.

Carl Pavano has signed with Cleveland; this isn’t big news but it reminded me of something Amalie said the other day about how the Sox prefer to stay away from giving pitchers big deals and how that wasn’t quite true since Theo took a big run at Pavano before the Yankees beat us out in the winter of 2004. I’d say we were fortunate but then we ended up with Matt Clement instead.

Back in Boston zzzzzzzzz....

Baseball on 5 is no more

2009-01-04T15:29:00.001Z

As an English baseball fan I will forever be indebted to Channel 5, Jonny Gould, Josh Chetwynd et al for introducing me to the sport seven years ago. Without their brilliant coverage twice-weekly I would probably not be a fan of the sport at all and certainly wouldn’t have been able to experience the torture of the 2003 ALCS, the redemption of the 2004 ALCS and eventual World Series wins that year and in 2007, experiences that will likely stay with me for the rest of my life.

So it felt like a part of me had died just a few minutes ago when I entered the blogosphere to find this article. In practical terms it doesn’t mean a great deal to me as I now rely on MLB.tv to watch the games but there was always something special about the Channel 5 show. The lack of free-to-watch baseball in Britain will likely to be the death knell to the growth of the sport in our part of the world since not everyone can afford MLB.tv or the digital channel NASN (soon to be ESPN America).

As the article states, it’s imperative that somebody takes on the mantel of free coverage in the UK as the sport is definitely on the rise in Europe and this is a sickening blow, if it is confirmed by Five. To not be able to watch the ridiculously enthusiastic Jonny Gould is almost like air deprivation to a British baseball fan.

This is a sad day indeed.

Sunday notes

2009-01-04T15:14:00.000Z

Another quiet day in the world of the Boston Red Sox and indeed, baseball in general. The Bruins lost last night; incredible to think that this is a shocking outcome but these are interesting times in Boston sports fandom. The Herald’s Sean McAdam (that still doesn’t sound right) has a report on the state of free agency, again nothing particularly enlightening but it’s something to read on a freezing Nottingham afternoon.

In the Globe, Amalie has a look at Brad Penny’s recent troubles and what we might expect from the newest addition to the big league rotation. I like the Penny signing in the same way that I thought the Bartolo Colon and Wade Miller moves were worth the risk, neither really panned out but it’s worth taking a chance every so often; one of these days we might just hit the jackpot.

On the Blogosphere, Over the Monster’s Allen Chace has posted an update on the current issues surrounding the Sox, more questions than answers but that’s where this club is at the moment. The suggestion of Greg Zaun as catcher isn’t that farfetched as the man himself has been quoted as being interesting and has confirmed his agent has had some discussions with Sox management.

Obviously a Zaun-Bard tandem isn’t ideal but unless the FO is willing to give up a prospect (or two) actually worth something then we’re not going to be able to do any better. I actually like the idea of having George Kottaras and Dusty Brown involved but I’m definitely in the minority on that front.

Its 41 days until pitchers and catchers report for spring training and with so much still to happen it’s pointless doing much in the way of projections and previews so until then, at least until the Sox actually make some moves, its seems all that can be done is keep an eye on things and wait for some news.

All quiet on the eastern front

2009-01-03T00:35:00.001Z

Since I decided to take the plunge and start this blog a few days ago, absolutely nothing of note has happened with the BoSox, hence the posts on other matters, and that is still the case. However, a couple of tidbits have surfaced today plus a new mailbag from Amalie Benjamin, the cute beat writer at the Boston Globe. She doesn’t say anything groundbreaking but still worth a read at quiet times like this.

On the news front the Sox officially signed catcher Josh Bard; you know, the guy they shipped out in the ridiculous Cla Meredith-Doug Mirabelli deal in 2006. Hopefully the FO won’t shit themselves so much this time around when Bard drops a knuckleball. The 30-year stands to earn a cool $2.5MM if he meets his incentive clauses and judging by his time in San Diego could be a solid pickup for the Sox, especially with a team option for 2010 included in the deal.

This puts more credence to the increasingly common belief that Jason Varitek’s time in Boston is at an end; although it’s been said that the Bard signing won’t impact the chances of ‘Tek returning and I don’t see another realistic option. Though I would never count out Scott Boras I think he has overplayed his hand here and Theo is going to call in the super agent’s bluff.

It does seem a bit farfetched to think that another team would provide El Capitan with a multi-year deal whilst forfeiting a first round pick to the Sox and Boras should have accepted the offer of arbitration when he had the chance; that way everyone would go home happy, Varitek would be overpaid in 2009 and that would be in the end of it.

The draft pick issue is known to have put off at least the Tigers, who traded for Gerald Laird, and has probably kept other teams in check. As is usual in dealings with Scott Boras, it all comes down to leverage and he doesn’t have much if any. I still see Jason Varitek on the team in 2009, simply because neither side has a better option available, unless Theo is prepared to give up a top prospect, which he isn’t.

“Hendrickson solidifies Orioles pitching staff”

2009-01-01T14:13:00.004Z

How? What a waste of time; Mark Hendrickson is not a good pitcher and is among those who should be limited only to the NL West and not allowed to stray back anywhere near the AL East, where he will most certainly be chewed up in pretty quick fashion.

Hendrickson has not managed to keep a rotation place in either of his last two stops, in Los Angeles and Florida and hasn’t managed 175 innings since 2005 when he played for Tampa Bay, back in the days when the standard requirement for a Devil Rays pitcher was to be awful.

How does this help the Orioles? I like the fact that Andy McPhail is trying to build up a farm system and he’s having some success with Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz not that far away from the majors but what good is this move going to do? They non-tendered a more talented pitcher in Daniel Cabrera so they could sign Mark Hendrickson? What the hell is that!

You mean to tell me they’d rather know what they’re getting from Hendrickson (sub-standard pitching) than wait and see if Cabrera could figure it out; unbelievable and yet completely unsurprising coming from an organisation that refuses to accept they aren’t going to be competitive unless they stop with all the “name” veterans and commit totally to their youth.

This is another move in the Dan O’Dowd “I just don’t get it” category; they have organisational guys who could do just as well as Hendrickson and, if actually given the chance, may turn out to be better. I suppose you can never tell if Peter Angelos has smeared his hands over moves like this but I would expect Andy McPhail to know better.

I wonder if O’s fans like this move...

The Nationals should sign Manny Ramirez

2009-01-01T00:02:00.003Z

It’s now 2009 in England and I am bored so to celebrate New Year I’m trawling the interweb for stuff to write about and here is this snippet from MLB.com man Bill Ladson...

Published reports continue to indicate that the Nationals have serious interest in free-agent slugger Manny Ramirez. Not so, according to a baseball source who asked not to be identified.

Ramirez had one of his best seasons in 2008, hitting a combined .332 with 37 home runs and 121 RBIs for the Red Sox and Dodgers, but he wouldn't be a good fit in Washington for two reasons. For one, the Nationals are overloaded with right-handed-hitting outfielders, plus he's 36 years old. The Nationals have often said that they are looking for players for the long term.

To me the reasons Ladson suggests don’t ring true; sure the Nationals are overloaded with right handed outfielders and Manny doesn’t represent a long-term option. However, whilst the Nats have plenty of outfield options, the simple fact is that none of them are in the same league as Manuel Aristides Ramirez, one of the best offensive players of his, or indeed any, generation.

Also, the suggestion that the Nationals are looking for younger players is also plausible but surely first and foremost they are looking for good players in order to be competitive and whilst Manny carries the usual age-related concerns he has the ability to make a real difference all on his own.

Couple that with the knowledge that Nationals GM Jim Bowden isn’t afraid to take on players with character flaws and I see a perfect match; Manny would attract fans and make the team better whilst costing nothing but money since Washington’s first overall draft pick is protected from Manny’s type A status.

Freshly shipped out of Boston, Manny seemed to revel in the Los Angeles atmosphere and was believed to be the perfect team-mate for a group of young Dodgers like Andre Ethier and James Loney. It’s not inconceivable that he would provide a similar boost to the Nationals own crop of youngsters including the talented but troubled duo of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes.

I would like this signing were the Nationals to make it; they have an awful major league team and no farm system to speak of so why not? The franchise is drifting along without anybody really noticing so why not give the people something worth watching? It’s a bold risk but one worth taking; Manny being Manny should be on display in America’s capital.

A couple of noteworthy moves

2008-12-31T23:42:00.002Z

Not for the Sox, but rather their likely opponents in the AL Wild Card race; the Anaheim Angels have signed a new (and better) closer in Brian Fuentes to a two-year contract and out of nowhere the Cleveland Indians have traded for Cubbies 2B Mark DeRosa, with Chicago then picking up free agent Aaron Miles to replace him.

Three good moves in my opinion; the Angels score highly with Fuentes who is both cheaper and better than his record-setting predecessor, Frankie Rodriquez. Indeed the former Rockie and three-time NL All-star will earn less than Rodriquez and Kerry Wood despite being a much better bet for a successful return. He had an excellent 2008 posting a 2.73 ERA with 30 saves and 11.78 K/9. Walks could be issue but in that and pretty much everything else Fuentes beat out K-Rod, aside from that magical save number, which tends to generate the most money yet has the least to do with good pitching performance.

The Angels have a huge whole at 1B but they’ve always been competitive in a weak AL West and will continue to be based on their strong rotation and bullpen, the latter of which should be better with a more formidable closer at the back end.

Meanwhile, the Cubs, fresh from aforementioned Jason Marquis megatrade, have shipped out versatile infielder Mark DeRosa to Cleveland for a package of minor league pitchers. Interesting this one since the Cubs are clearly in win-now mode although it appears this is not a precursor to a Jake Peavy trade but rather just a salary dump in preparation for signing Milton Bradley.

DeRosa played six different positions for the Cubs in 2008 and would appear to fit into Cleveland’s hole at 3B although it had been rumoured that the Indians might slide Jhonny Peralta to third and Asdrubal Cabrera to short; a move which is unnecessary but still feasible given DeRosa’s ability to play anywhere.

According to the Bill James projection system, DeRosa is expected to hit .273/.354/.430 with 17 HR; that’s pretty nifty for a versatile defender costing just $5.5MM. He put up a 118 OPS+ in 2008 and despite playing 2009 at age 34 is a pretty solid bet to match that; DeRosa is not a brilliant hitter but he is going to give you average or better production whilst playing a solid infield and for that cost you can’t really argue unless one of the players the Indians gave up goes on to be a superstar.

Is that likely? Well no, not really; the Cubs will receive minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, John Gaub and Chris Archer and since I don’t know anything about them I refer you to this write-up of the trade which doesn’t make it seem like Mark Shapiro gave up a whole lot.

I like this move for the Indians who gave up nothing they’ll miss and got themselves a league-average hitter capable of filling virtually any defensive hole. The Cubs meanwhile get more salary relief, so they can sign Milton Bradley, the oft-injured but otherwise excellent switch hitter who they intend to gamble on in right field.

They’ve also replaced DeRosa, at least defensively, with former Cardinal Aaron Miles on a cheap two-year deal. Miles, like his predecessor, can play virtually anywhere but doesn’t provide the same power. I always felt Miles was badly underused in St. Louis where he was frequently kept on the bench by the likes of David Eckstein; he should get more of a chance in Chicago.

Happy New Year!

Spending for the sake of it

2008-12-31T01:26:00.004Z

The hot stove isn't exactly burning at the moment but I've noticed the Rockies appear to be on the verge of trading Luis Vizcaino to the Cubs for Jason Marquis and cash. From the Cubs standpoint they rid themselves of an average 5th starter and acquire a cheaper body for the bullpen. Fair enough, Vizcaino is average at best but no harm no foul I suppose; they can use the saved cash (approx. $5MM) towards a Milton Bradley type and if Vizcaino makes enough trips to the mound to guarantee his option then all well and good since that should mean he was useful enough to keep throwing out there (unless the Cubbies have a really shitty bullpen this year).

But from the Rockies and oft-criticised Dan O’Dowd’s point of view, I just don't get it; sure they won't miss Vizcaino but what good is Jason Marquis going to do? This is a team that went 74-88 in 2008 and was 10 games back in an awful division. Since then they’ve lost two key players in Matt Holliday and Brian Fuentes; is Jason Marquis really going to make them competitive?

Not a chance. The simple truth is that whilst the Rockies had a good run to the World Series in 2007 their roster is a mess and Marquis (career ERA+ 96) is not going to make it any better. Marquis gives up home runs in bunches and strikes out just 5.3/9; not the perfect fit for Coors Field. This move is indicative of the type that Dan O’Dowd, Ed Wade, Brian Sabean and company like to make; they just don’t seem to understand that acquiring a “proven” name does not mean you are getting a good player.

The Rockies are a rudderless ship until somebody up top realises that they got to the Fall Classic on the back of their home grown talent and not by trading for expensive and pointless additions that are the very definition of average.

Organisations like the Rockies do need to take some risks but at least take them on players who have been quality performers, like the Sox have with Brad Penny; the former Dodger is not a lock to provide anything useful and the argument could be made that we may as well throw Charlie Zink or Dave Pauley out there as cheaper options with potentially similar results. The difference is that Penny was very good just two years ago and could be again whereas Jason Marquis always has been average and likely will only get worse in 2009 playing at Coors.

All in all a pretty inconsequential trade for the Cubs but a really awful one for the Rockies; I am a loss to see how this makes the team any more competitive whilst costing a horrific amount of money they could be putting to a much better use.

It begins...

2008-12-31T00:46:00.003Z

As an Englishman following a sport that generates next to zero interest in my own country I would be lost without the internet and the score of excellent blogs following my beloved Boston Red Sox throughout the gruelling trials of a Major League season. Truly I am indebted to the likes of the Joy of Sox and Over The Monster for giving me a real fans eye view of just what is going on in Boston and for not leaving me to struggle on with the soulless piffle put out by the American media.

The point?

I want a go.

True I've never been to America and thus have never been to a live baseball game but I have grown very attached to this team and fancy writing a few of my thoughts down for a change instead of just shouting at my laptop whenever the Boston Globe publishes an article I disagree with.

I don't know what I will write about or how often I will post but there is something strangely alluring about writing about your sports team, something I know all too well since I took up reporting on my soccerball team Derby County for fan site Ramzone.net. Following the Rams is almost akin to beating oneself with a stick so I hope to use this blog to be a bit more positive since the Sox actually win a few games now and then!

I suppose I am talking to myself since this blog is not linked anywhere but we'll see what happens down the road. I am sure though that I finally decided to start this blog at the right time; after the Mark Teixeira debacle.